Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41810940›Full record

ArticleEuropean heart journal2026

Risk prediction in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: the LIFE-Preserved model.

Tessa H Reitsma, Gianluigi Savarese, Łukasz Kuźma, Salil V Deo, Lisa Pennells, Steven H J Hageman, Joris Holtrop, Lina Benson, Nathalie Conrad, Lars H Lund and 21 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in European heart journal, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Observational
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

31 authors.

Tessa H ReitsmaDepartment of Vascular Medicine and Endocrinology, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht 3508, The Netherlands.
Gianluigi SavareseDepartment of Clinical Science and Education, Södersjukhuset; Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0001-7732-0887
Łukasz KuźmaDepartment of Invasive Cardiology, Medical University of Białystok, Białystok, Poland.
Salil V DeoSurgical Services, Louis Stokes Cleveland VA Medical Center, Cleveland, OH, USA.
Lisa PennellsBritish Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8594-3061
Steven H J HagemanDepartment of Vascular Medicine and Endocrinology, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht 3508, The Netherlands.
Joris HoltropDepartment of Vascular Medicine and Endocrinology, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht 3508, The Netherlands.ORCID 0009-0005-7616-3839
Lina BensonDepartment of Clinical Science and Education, Södersjukhuset; Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0002-5393-0055
Nathalie ConradNuffield Department of Women's and Reproductive Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Lars H LundDepartment of Medicine and KArolinska University Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Anna KuraszDepartment of Invasive Cardiology, Medical University of Białystok, Białystok, Poland.ORCID 0000-0003-0526-3339
Stephen KaptogeBritish Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1155-4872
Spencer J KeeneBritish Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Chimweta ChilalaBritish Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Matilda PittBritish Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Robert A FletcherBritish Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Kamlesh KhuntiDiabetes Research Centre, Leicester General Hospital, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-2343-7099
Massimo PiepoliDepartment of Biomedical Science for Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy.ORCID 0000-0003-1124-234X
Xavier RosselloHospital Universitario Son Espases, Health Research Institute of the Balearic Islands, Universitat Illes Balears, Palma de Mallorca, Spain.
Jennifer S LeesSchool of Cardiovascular & Metabolic Health, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6331-0178
Maryam KavousiDepartment of Epidemiology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0001-5976-6519
John William McEvoySchool of Medicine and National Institute for Prevention and Cardiovascular Health, University of Galway, Galway, Ireland.
Angela M WoodBritish Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Rudolf A de BoerDepartment of Cardiology, Thorax Center, Cardiovascular Institute, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-4775-9140
Charlotte AnderssonDepartment of Cardiology, Copenhagen University Hospital Herlev and Gentofte, Herlev, Denmark.
Frank L J VisserenDepartment of Vascular Medicine and Endocrinology, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht 3508, The Netherlands.
Stefan KoudstaalDepartment of Cardiology, Thorax Center, Cardiovascular Institute, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Emanuele Di AngelantonioBritish Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8776-6719
Jannick A N DorresteijnDepartment of Vascular Medicine and Endocrinology, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht 3508, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-0190-8526
CVD-COVID-UK/COVID-IMPACT Consortium
ESC Cardiovascular Risk Collaboration

Funding

British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre SP/19/3/34678
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

aimsHeart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) constitutes a heterogeneous disease with varying prognosis. Given the rising incidence of HFpEF, accurate risk prediction for these patients is needed to identify high-risk individuals, who may benefit the most from preventive treatments. The LIFE-Preserved model was developed and validated for the prediction of individual short-term and lifetime risk for HF hospitalization or cardiovascular (CV) death in patients with HFpEF.

methodsLIFE-Preserved was derived in 20 332 patients aged 40-90 years with a left ventricular ejection fraction ≥ 50% from the Swedish HF Registry. Cause- and sex-specific Cox models were derived to predict the risk of HF hospitalization or CV death using 14 routinely available predictors. Use of age as the timescale allowed for predictions beyond the maximum follow-up duration in the derivation data, adjusted for competing risks. External validation was performed in two trials (EMPEROR-Preserved and TOPCAT-Americas) and three registries (NHS England Secure Data Environment, Veterans Affairs, and HF-Particles). Model performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration.

resultsDuring a median follow-up of 1.8 years (interquartile range .6-4.2, maximum 19 years), 9341 first HF hospitalizations or CV deaths (46%) were observed in Swedish HF Registry. External validation included data from 28 062 patients with HFpEF [9930 (35%) first HF hospitalizations or CV deaths]. Pooled C-statistics were .714 (95% confidence interval .652-.775) in trials and .658 (95% confidence interval .599-.717 in registries, with adequate calibration in all external validation sources. Performance was similar in men and women. An interactive calculator of the LIFE-Preserved model has been made available here.

conclusionsThe LIFE-Preserved model enables prediction of short-term and lifetime risk of HF hospitalization or CV death in patients with HFpEF. The model could serve as a tool to identify high-risk HFpEF patients, guiding clinical management and shared decision-making.

Indexed as

Heart FailureStroke VolumeAdultAgedAged, 80 and overFemaleHospitalizationHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisRegistriesRisk AssessmentSwedenHeart failureHFpEFRisk prediction

Identifiers

PMID41810940
PMCPMC13549728

What Socratic holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.