Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41811517›Full record

ArticleArchives of gynecology and obstetrics2026

LASSO regression-derived first-trimester (9-14

Xiao Wang, Jin Zhang, Shitong Zhan, Xianming Xu

Abstract readValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in Archives of gynecology and obstetrics, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

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2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Xiao Wang *Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 201,600, China.
Jin Zhang *Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 201,600, China.
Shitong ZhanDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 201,600, China.
Xianming XuDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 201,600, China. xuxm11@163.com.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundEarly identification of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is critical for mitigating adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. Existing prediction models face limitations in clinical utility due to inconsistent variable selection and reliance on impractical biomarkers. This study aimed to develop and validate a resource-efficient GDM prediction model using routinely available first-trimester clinical indicators and deploy it as an open-access web tool.

methodsA retrospective cohort of 1818 pregnancies from a Shanghai tertiary hospital (2023) was randomly divided into training (70%) and validation (30%) sets. Three predictor screening strategies (traditional logistic regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression with 1SE rule, and LASSO-MIN rule) were compared. The model performance was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC), the calibration curve, the clinical decision curve (DCA) and the clinical impact curve (CIC). The optimal model was visualized as a nomogram and deployed as an open access web calculator.

resultsThe LASSO-1SE model achieved the best balance of accuracy and simplicity, with an AUC of 0.717 (95% CI 0.681-0.753), sensitivity 69.7%, specificity 64.9%, and high positive predictive value (PPV = 92.3%).The model showed robust calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P > 0.3) and clinical utility across risk thresholds in DCA and CIC. A nomogram and an open-access web calculator ( https://wangxiao0922.shinyapps.io/20250309/ ) were developed for risk stratification.

conclusionsThis resource-efficient tool enables early GDM risk stratification using routine clinical variables, supporting timely intervention in diverse healthcare settings.

Indexed as

Diabetes, GestationalAdultChinaEast Asian PeopleFemaleHumansInternetLogistic ModelsNomogramsPrediction AlgorithmsPregnancyPregnancy Trimester, FirstRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentROC CurveEarly predictionGestational diabetes mellitusLASSO regressionMetabolic biomarkersNomogramRisk stratificationWeb-based calculator

Identifiers

PMID41811517
PMCPMC12979335

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.