Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41813639›Full record

ArticleChinese medical journal2026

Global burden of ischemic heart disease from 1990 to 2021: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 and predictions to 2030.

Shengyu Jing, Ao Chen, Yan Xia, Jiaqi Ma, Danbo Lu, Zhangwei Chen, Juying Qian, Junbo Ge

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PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Chinese medical journal, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Shengyu JingDepartment of Cardiology, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, Shanghai 200032, China.
Ao ChenDepartment of Cardiology, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, Shanghai 200032, China.
Yan XiaDepartment of Cardiology, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, Shanghai 200032, China.
Jiaqi MaDepartment of Cardiology, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, Shanghai 200032, China.
Danbo LuState Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Diseases, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
Zhangwei ChenDepartment of Cardiology, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, Shanghai 200032, China.
Juying QianDepartment of Cardiology, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, Shanghai 200032, China.
Junbo GeDepartment of Cardiology, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, Shanghai 200032, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIschemic heart disease (IHD) remains the leading cause of global morbidity and mortality, yet comprehensive analyses of its burden across sociodemographic contexts and future projections are limited. This study leverages the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database to assess the global, regional, and national burden of IHD from 1990 to 2021 and predicts trends up to 2030.

methodsData on IHD prevalence, incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality were extracted from the GBD 2021 database. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to evaluate temporal trends. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was employed to project age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) through 2030. Analyses were stratified by sociodemographic index (SDI), age, sex, and region.

resultsFrom 1990 to 2021, global IHD cases increased by 127%, reaching 254.28 million, with the sharpest rises in East Asia and Andean Latin America. Age-standardized incidence, DALYs, and mortality rates declined globally (EAPC: -44%, -120%, and -130%). High-SDI regions exhibited significant reductions in mortality (EAPC: -130%), while low-, low-middle-, and middle-SDI regions faced rising burdens in some indications. Men had consistently higher rates than women, particularly in the elderly population. Projections suggest continued declines in ASIRs through 2030, driven largely by reductions among adults aged ≥70 years, while incidence among younger adults (30-49 years) is expected to fluctuate.

conclusionsAlthough the global absolute burden of IHD increased from 1990 to 2021, age-standardized rates declined, and the burden is projected to decrease further through 2030. These findings highlight the critical need for enhanced prevention and healthcare policies to address the global IHD burden effectively. In low- and middle-SDI regions, policy efforts should be intensified to control risk factors, whereas in high-SDI regions the focus should be on secondary prevention and rehabilitation.

Indexed as

Global Burden of DiseaseMyocardial IschemiaAdultAgedBayes TheoremDisability-Adjusted Life YearsFemaleGlobal HealthHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceGlobal Burden of Disease Study 2021IncidenceIschemic heart diseaseMortalityPredictions

Identifiers

PMID41813639
PMCPMC13090076

What Socratic holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.