All-cause health-adjusted life expectancy in Jiangxi Province, China, 2000-2030: systematic estimation and analysis.

Jing Ding, Sanqian Chen, Yuting Deng, Siyu Zhou, Zhang Zeng, Songbo Hu

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Article in Preventive medicine reports, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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6 authors.

Jing DingSchool of Public Health, Jiangxi Medical College, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Disease Prevention and Public Health, Nanchang University, Donghu Campus, Nanchang, Nanchang 330006, PR China.

Sanqian ChenSchool of Public Health, Jiangxi Medical College, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Disease Prevention and Public Health, Nanchang University, Donghu Campus, Nanchang, Nanchang 330006, PR China.

Yuting DengSchool of Public Health, Jiangxi Medical College, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Disease Prevention and Public Health, Nanchang University, Donghu Campus, Nanchang, Nanchang 330006, PR China.

Siyu ZhouSchool of Public Health, Jiangxi Medical College, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Disease Prevention and Public Health, Nanchang University, Donghu Campus, Nanchang, Nanchang 330006, PR China.

Zhang ZengDepartment of Public Health Management Section, Jiujiang City Key Laboratory of Cell Therapy, The First Hospital of Jiujiang City, Jiujiang 332000, PR China.

Songbo HuSchool of Public Health, Jiangxi Medical College, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Disease Prevention and Public Health, Nanchang University, Donghu Campus, Nanchang, Nanchang 330006, PR China.

Funding

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6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Objectives: Using Jiangxi Province as a case study, this research aims to evaluate the progress in achieving the national "Healthy China 2030" all-cause health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) targets at the subnational level. Methods: Based on provincial data collected between 2000 and 2020, we applied a simplified, validated model to estimate all-cause years lived with disability (YLD) rates. HALE was then calculated using the Sullivan method with provincial abridged life tables. Values for 2021-2030 were projected using the Lee-Carter and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. Missing data were handled via spline interpolation, and uncertainty was quantified via Monte Carlo simulation. Results: All-cause HALE in Jiangxi increased by 7.8 years from 2000 to 2020 and is projected to reach 71.6 years by 2030, meeting the national target despite a recent slowdown in growth. YLD rates declined in younger age groups but rose among those aged ≥80 years. Women consistently showed higher life expectancy and HALE than men, but accumulated more unhealthy life-years. Conclusions: Jiangxi Province is on track to achieve the "Healthy China 2030" HALE target. Persistent age and gender disparities highlight the need for tailored interventions-particularly for women and the growing elderly population-to improve health-related quality of life.

Indexed as

All-cause healthy-adjusted life expectancyAll-cause years lived with disability calculation modelJiangxi ProvinceModel applicationProjection

Identifiers

PMID41816641

DOI10.1016/j.pmedr.2026.103436

PMCPMC12972705

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.