Evidence mapPaperPMID 41822686Full record

ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2026

Predictive performance of seven clinical surrogates of visceral adipose tissue for cardiovascular mortality: A sub-analysis of 102,385 adults from the Mexico City Prospective Study.

Jesús Ernesto Martínez-Luna, María Fernanda Suárez-Velázquez, Mario Cesar Torres-Chávez, Guillermo C Cardoso-Saldaña, Juan Reyes-Barrera, Jaime Berumen-Campos, Pablo Kuri-Morales, Roberto Tapia-Conyer, Jesus Alegre-Díaz, Carlos A Fermín-Martínez and 3 more

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Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

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2 · The registry

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Jesús Ernesto Martínez-LunaDepartment of Endocrinology, Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez, Mexico City, Mexico.ORCID 0009-0007-7274-0621
María Fernanda Suárez-VelázquezDepartment of Endocrinology, Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez, Mexico City, Mexico.
Mario Cesar Torres-ChávezDepartment of Endocrinology, Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez, Mexico City, Mexico.
Guillermo C Cardoso-SaldañaDepartment of Endocrinology, Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez, Mexico City, Mexico.ORCID 0000-0001-9525-1731
Juan Reyes-BarreraDepartment of Endocrinology, Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez, Mexico City, Mexico.ORCID 0000-0002-1804-8198
Jaime Berumen-CamposExperimental Research Unit, Faculty of Medicine, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City.ORCID 0000-0001-6707-3317
Pablo Kuri-MoralesFacultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico.
Roberto Tapia-ConyerFacultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico.ORCID 0000-0001-9425-7322
Jesus Alegre-DíazExperimental Research Unit, Faculty of Medicine, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City.ORCID 0000-0001-9390-3871
Carlos A Fermín-MartínezMD/PhD (PECEM) Program, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico.
Jacqueline A SeiglieDiabetes Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9278-4516
Omar Yaxmehen Bello-ChavollaResearch Division, Instituto Nacional de Geriatría, Mexico City, Mexico.ORCID 0000-0003-3093-937X
Neftali Eduardo Antonio-VillaDepartment of Endocrinology, Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez, Mexico City, Mexico.ORCID 0000-0002-6879-1078

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundVisceral adipose tissue (VAT) has been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. However, the comparative performance of VAT-related clinical surrogates remains poorly characterized.

objectivesTo evaluate the performance of seven VAT-related clinical surrogates for predicting CVD and cause-specific CVD mortality.

methodsWe analyzed data from the Mexico City Prospective Cohort, a population-based prospective cohort study, with baseline recruitmetn between 1998 - 2004 and ongoing mortality follow-up. CVD mortality included deaths from cardiac, stroke-related, and other vascular causes. Seven VAT-related surrogates (METS-VF, CVAI, EVA, DAAT, LAAP, VAI, and DAI) were estimated using clinical, biochemical, and anthropometric data at baseline. Associations with outcomes were evaluated using Cox regression models to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs). Discrimination was assessed with Harrell's C-statistic (Cs) and fixed-point at 10-years receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and calibration with slope plots.

resultsIn a subsample of 102,385 participants (median age: 47 years; 67% female), 4,068 (3.97%) died from any CVD causes. METS-VF (Cs: 0.722; aHR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.12-1.23), EVA (Cs: 0.72; 1.14, 1.12-1.23), CVAI (Cs: 0.70; 1.13, 1.09-1.18), and DAAT (Cs: 0.626; 1.13, 1.09-1.18) were positively associated with CVD mortality and showed the highest predictive capacity among the surrogates. Adding METS-VF to a CVD risk score among individuals classified as intermediate risk improved discrimination for CVD mortality.

conclusionsIn this large cohort of Mexican adults, four VAT-related clinical surrogates, particularly METS-VF, demonstrated good discriminatory performance for long-term CVD mortality. These indices could help to identify individuals with high VAT accumulation and high CVD risk in resource-limited settings.

Indexed as

AbdominalCardiovascular diseaseMexicoObesityRisk AssessmentVisceral fat

Identifiers

PMID41822686
PMCPMC12976897

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.