Evidence mapPaperPMID 41849131Full record

SynthesisHigh blood pressure & cardiovascular prevention : the official journal of the Italian Society of Hypertension2026

Triglyceride-Glucose Index and Mortality Risk in the General Population: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Prospective Studies.

D'Elia Lanfranco, Saverio Stranges, Ersilia La Fata, Francesca Fortunato, Raffaele Palladino, Domenico Rendina, Ferruccio Galletti

Erratum issuedAbstract readSystematic ReviewMeta-Analysis
In one paragraph

Synthesis in High blood pressure & cardiovascular prevention : the official journal of the Italian Society of Hypertension, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

D'Elia LanfrancoDepartment of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, "Federico II" University of Naples Medical School, Via S. Pansini, 5, 80131, Naples, Italy. lanfranco.delia@unina.it.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1782-0211
Saverio StrangesDepartment of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, "Federico II" University of Naples Medical School, Via S. Pansini, 5, 80131, Naples, Italy.
Ersilia La FataDepartment of Medicine and Medical Specialties, AORN "A. Cardarelli Hospital", 80131, Naples, Italy.
Francesca FortunatoDepartment of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, "Federico II" University of Naples Medical School, Via S. Pansini, 5, 80131, Naples, Italy.
Raffaele PalladinoDepartment of Public Health, University "Federico II", Via Sergio Pansini 5, 80131, Naples, Italy.
Domenico RendinaDepartment of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, "Federico II" University of Naples Medical School, Via S. Pansini, 5, 80131, Naples, Italy.
Ferruccio GallettiDepartment of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, "Federico II" University of Naples Medical School, Via S. Pansini, 5, 80131, Naples, Italy.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionInsulin resistance (IR) is a major determinant of cardiovascular disease and mortality, yet its direct measurement is limited by the need for insulin assays. The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index has emerged as a simple and inexpensive surrogate marker of IR, but its prognostic relevance for mortality remains uncertain due to the heterogeneity of available studies.

aimThis study aimed to: (i) evaluate the predictive value of the TyG index for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk in the general population; (ii) assess the shape and magnitude of the dose-response relationship; and (iii) identify the most appropriate threshold for mortality risk prediction.

methodsA systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis was conducted, including prospective cohort studies that assessed baseline TyG and subsequent mortality. Random-effects models were used to pool hazard ratios, and restricted cubic splines were applied to examine potential non-linearity in the dose-response relationship.

resultsTwelve studies comprising 14 independent cohorts (≈10.8 million participants) were included. Each one-unit increase in TyG was associated with a 14% higher risk of all-cause mortality and a 16% higher risk of cardiovascular mortality starting from 6.9 units (or 3.79 units in the alternative scale). Associations were linear and consistent across sensitivity analyses. There was a significant heterogeneity among studies, but no evidence of publication bias.

conclusionThe TyG index independently and linearly predicts all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, supporting its potential role as a clinically useful, low-cost marker for early cardio-metabolic risk stratification in population-based settings.

Indexed as

Blood GlucoseCardiovascular DiseasesInsulin ResistanceTriglyceridesAdultAgedBiomarkersCause of DeathFemaleHeart Disease Risk FactorsHumansMaleMiddle AgedPredictive Value of TestsPrognosisRisk AssessmentBiomarkersBlood GlucoseTriglyceridesCardiovascular mortalityMeta-analysisMortalityTriglyceride-glucose indexTyG

Identifiers

PMID41849131
PMCPMC13283200

What Socratic holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.