Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41850989›Full record

ArticleBritish journal of anaesthesia2026

Prediction and risk evaluation of delirium after surgery in older patients: development and internal validation of an algorithm from the prospective BioCog cohort study.

Florian Lammers-Lietz, Levent Akyuez, Diana Boraschi, Friedrich Borchers, Jeroen de Bresser, Sreyoshi Chatterjee, Marta M Correia, Nikola M de Lange, Thomas Bernd Dschietzig, Soumyabrata Ghosh and 51 more

Registry-linked trialAbstract readValidation StudyMulticenter Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in British journal of anaesthesia, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT02265263 (Biomarker Development for Postoperative Cognitive Impairment in the Elderly), which is not on this map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT02265263 terminatednot on this map

Biomarker Development for Postoperative Cognitive Impairment in the Elderly (BioCog)

TypeobservationalSponsorCharite University, Berlin, GermanyRan2014 to 2019Enrolled1,054ConditionsPostoperative Delirium (POD), Postoperative Cognitive Deficit (POCD)
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

61 authors.

Florian Lammers-LietzDepartment of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Pharmaimage Biomarker Solutions GmbH, Berlin, Germany. Electronic address: florian.lammers@charite.de.
Levent AkyuezBerlin Institute of Health at Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, BIH Center for Regenerative therapies (BCRT), and Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Institute of Medical Immunology, Berlin, Germany; CheckImmune GmbH, Berlin, Germany.
Diana BoraschiInstitute of Protein Biochemistry, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR) di Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
Friedrich BorchersDepartment of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Jeroen de BresserDepartment of Radiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Sreyoshi ChatterjeeBioinformatics Core, Luxembourg Center for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB), University of Luxembourg, Belvaux, Luxembourg; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft und Raumfahrt (DLR), Cologne, Germany.
Marta M CorreiaMRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Nikola M de LangeBioinformatics Core, Luxembourg Center for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB), University of Luxembourg, Belvaux, Luxembourg.
Thomas Bernd DschietzigImmundiagnostik AG, Bensheim, Germany.
Soumyabrata GhoshBioinformatics Core, Luxembourg Center for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB), University of Luxembourg, Belvaux, Luxembourg.
Insa FeinkohlMolecular Epidemiology Research Group, Max-Delbrück-Center for Molecular Medicine in the Helmholtz Association (MDC), Berlin, Germany; Faculty of Health at Department of Medicine, Witten/Herdecke University, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany.
Izabela Ferreira da SilvaBioinformatics Core, Luxembourg Center for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB), University of Luxembourg, Belvaux, Luxembourg.
Marinus FislageDepartment of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Anna FournierBioinformatics Core, Luxembourg Center for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB), University of Luxembourg, Belvaux, Luxembourg; Swiss Data Science Center (SDSC), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Jürgen GallinatDepartment of Psychiatry, University Medical-Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany.
Daniel HadzidiakosDepartment of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Sven HädelPharmaimage Biomarker Solutions GmbH, Berlin, Germany.
Fatima Halzl-YürekDepartment of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Stefanie Heilmann-HeimbachInstitute of Human Genetics, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
Maria HeinrichDepartment of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Berlin Institute of Health at Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, BIH Academy, (Digital) Clinician Scientist Program, Berlin, Germany.
Jeroen HendrikseDepartment of Radiology and Brain Center Rudolf Magnus, University Medical Center Utrecht (UMC), Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Per HoffmannInstitute of Human Genetics, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany; Division of Medical Genetics, University Hospital, Basel, Switzerland; Human Genetics Research Group, Department of Biomedicine, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
Jürgen JankeMolecular Epidemiology Research Group, Max-Delbrück-Center for Molecular Medicine in the Helmholtz Association (MDC), Berlin, Germany; Biobank Technology Platform, Max-Delbrück-Center for Molecular Medicine in the Helmholtz Association (MDC), Berlin, Germany.
Ilse M J KantDepartment of Intensive Care Medicine and Brain Center, University Medical Center Utrecht (UMC), Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Angelie KraftAdaLab UG, Hamburg, Germany; Pharmaimage Biomarker Solutions Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA.
Roland KrauseBioinformatics Core, Luxembourg Center for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB), University of Luxembourg, Belvaux, Luxembourg.
Jochen Kruppa-ScheetzInstitute of Biometry and Clinical Epidemiology-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Hochschule Osnabrück, University of Applied Sciences, Osnabrück, Germany.
Simone KühnDepartment of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Department of Psychiatry, University Medical-Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany.
Gunnar LachmannDepartment of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Berlin Institute of Health at Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, BIH Academy, (Digital) Clinician Scientist Program, Berlin, Germany.
Markus LaubachDepartment of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Pharmaimage Biomarker Solutions Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA; Department of Orthopaedics and Trauma Surgery, Musculoskeletal University Center Munich (MUM), LMU University Hospital, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany.
Christoph LippertHasso-Plattner Institute, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany.
David K MenonNeurosciences/Trauma Critical Care Unit, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK; Division of Anaesthesia, Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Rudolf MörgeliDepartment of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Anika MüllerDepartment of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Henk-Jan MutsaertsDepartment of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Amsterdam University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Amsterdam Neuroscience, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Markus NöthenInstitute of Human Genetics, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
Peter NürnbergCologne Center for Genomics, University of Cologne, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital Cologne, Cologne, Germany; Institute for Genetics of the University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; Atlas Biolabs GmbH, Berlin, Germany.
Kwaku OfosuDepartment of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Malte PietzschCellogic GmbH (Cellogic), Berlin, Germany.
Sophie K PiperInstitute of Biometry and Clinical Epidemiology-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Institute of Medical Informatics-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Tobias PischonMolecular Epidemiology Research Group, Max-Delbrück-Center for Molecular Medicine in the Helmholtz Association (MDC), Berlin, Germany; Biobank Technology Platform, Max-Delbrück-Center for Molecular Medicine in the Helmholtz Association (MDC), Berlin, Germany; Berlin Institute of Health at Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Core Facility Biobank, Berlin, Germany.
Jacobus PrellerDepartment of Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; John Farman Intensive Care Unit, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK.
Konstanze ScheurerDepartment of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Reinhard SchneiderBioinformatics Core, Luxembourg Center for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB), University of Luxembourg, Belvaux, Luxembourg.
Kathrin ScholtzDepartment of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Peter H SchreierPharmaimage Biomarker Solutions Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA; Institute for Genetics of the University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
Arjen J C SlooterDepartment of Intensive Care Medicine and Brain Center, University Medical Center Utrecht (UMC), Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Emmanuel A StamatakisDivision of Anaesthesia, Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; Department of Clinical Neurosciences, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Clarissa von HaefenDepartment of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Simone J T van MontfortDepartment of Intensive Care Medicine and Brain Center, University Medical Center Utrecht (UMC), Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Edwin van DellenDepartment of Intensive Care Medicine and Brain Center, University Medical Center Utrecht (UMC), Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands; Department of Psychiatry and UMC Utrecht Brain Center, University Medical Center Utrecht (UMC), Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Hans-Dieter VolkCheckImmune GmbH, Berlin, Germany; Institute of Medical Immunology, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Simon WeberCellogic GmbH (Cellogic), Berlin, Germany.
Janine WiebachInstitute of Biometry and Clinical Epidemiology-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany; BIH Berlin Institute of Health at Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Core Unit Metabolomics, Berlin, Germany.
Anton WiehePharmaimage Biomarker Solutions GmbH, Berlin, Germany; AdaLab UG, Hamburg, Germany; Pharmaimage Biomarker Solutions Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA.
Jeanne M WintererPharmaimage Biomarker Solutions GmbH, Berlin, Germany; Pharmaimage Biomarker Solutions Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA; Department of Psychiatry-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Department of Education and Psychology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Alissa WolfDepartment of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Norman ZachariasDepartment of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Pharmaimage Biomarker Solutions Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA; Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Claudia SpiesDepartment of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Georg WintererDepartment of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Pharmaimage Biomarker Solutions GmbH, Berlin, Germany; Pharmaimage Biomarker Solutions Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA.
BioCog consortium

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPostoperative delirium (POD) affects ∼20% of older surgical patients. It is associated with poor clinical outcome and increased mortality. We aimed to identify the major POD risk factors and to develop and validate a multivariate algorithm for individual POD risk prediction and risk evaluation in the very early postoperative period.

methodsBioCog is a prospective cohort study conducted in the anaesthesiology departments of two tertiary care centres in Germany and The Netherlands. Patients aged ≥65 yr with no preoperative dementia (Mini-Mental Status Examination ≥24) undergoing surgery with an expected duration of at least 60 min were enrolled and screened for POD according to DSM 5 until the seventh postoperative day. Clinical, neuropsychological, neuroimaging data, and blood were measured before and after surgery. We evaluated several models by sequentially adding blocks of variables. Gradient-boosted trees (GBT) with nested cross-validation were used for POD prediction. Model accuracy (area under the receiver-operating curve, AUC) and calibration were assessed (Brier score).

resultsOut of 929 patients, 184 (20%) experienced POD. A GBT algorithm using both preoperative data, characteristics of the intervention, and postoperative changes in laboratory parameters achieved the highest AUC (0.83, [0.79-0.86]) with a Brier score of 0.12 (0.12-0.13).

conclusionsModels combining preoperative with precipitating factors during surgery predict POD with high accuracy. This suggests that the resulting algorithms eventually may become useful to support clinical decision-making. CLINICAL

trial registrationNCT02265263.

Indexed as

AlgorithmsDeliriumEmergence DeliriumPostoperative ComplicationsAgedAged, 80 and overCohort StudiesFemaleGermanyHumansMaleNetherlandsPrediction AlgorithmsProspective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk Factorscohort studyneuroimagingpostoperative complicationspostoperative deliriumrisk factorstranscriptome

Identifiers

PMID41850989
PMCPMC13197897

What Socratic holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC
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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.