Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41859701›Full record

ArticleOpen forum infectious diseases2026

Longitudinal Epidemiology and Variant Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Coastal Kenya (2020-2025): Clinical Features and Wave Patterns.

Arnold W Lambisia, Joyce Nyiro, George Githinji, Esther N Katama, Edidah Moraa, John M Mwita, Martin Mutunga, Grace Maina, Philip Bejon, My V T Phan and 7 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Open forum infectious diseases, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

17 authors.

Arnold W LambisiaEpidemiology and Demography Department, Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.
Joyce NyiroEpidemiology and Demography Department, Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7215-6539
George GithinjiEpidemiology and Demography Department, Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9640-7371
Esther N KatamaEpidemiology and Demography Department, Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0003-3399-3037
Edidah MoraaEpidemiology and Demography Department, Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.
John M MwitaEpidemiology and Demography Department, Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.
Martin MutungaEpidemiology and Demography Department, Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.
Grace MainaEpidemiology and Demography Department, Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.
Philip BejonEpidemiology and Demography Department, Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2135-7549
My V T PhanCollege of Health Solutions, Arizona State University, Phoenix, Arizona, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6905-8513
Matthew CottenCollege of Health Solutions, Arizona State University, Phoenix, Arizona, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3361-3351
Simon DellicourSpatial Epidemiology Lab, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Bruxelles, Belgium.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9558-1052
L Isabella Ochola-OyierEpidemiology and Demography Department, Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.
Charles SandeEpidemiology and Demography Department, Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8364-6063
Edward C HolmesSchool of Medical Sciences, University of Sydney, Camperdown NSW 2050, Sydney, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9596-3552
James NyagwangeEpidemiology and Demography Department, Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5430-6011
Charles N AgotiEpidemiology and Demography Department, Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2160-567X

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation INV-033558Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: SARS-CoV-2 is a major cause of outpatient-attended acute respiratory infections (ARIs). Data from Africa are limited on SARS-CoV-2 infection, variants, symptom profile, and longitudinal trends for outpatient presentation. Methods: Starting December 2020, we established ARI surveillance at 5 outpatient clinics in coastal Kenya, recruiting ∼15 participants (any age) per week per clinic for SARS-CoV-2 testing and genome analysis. Participants provided respiratory samples, demographic details, and vaccination and symptom data. We compared SARS-CoV-2 clinical and molecular epidemiology before and during Omicron waves using multivariate logistic regression. Results: By February 2025, we had recruited 14 562 ARI cases, with 1053 (7.2%) testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. The median age of cases was 25 years (IQR, 15-41) and 65.0% were female. Nine infection waves were recorded, with positivity ranging 8.2% to 25.6%. Interwave intervals increased from ≤3 months in 2021 to ≥6 months in 2024. Sixty-eight PANGO lineages were identified from 782 (74.2%) sequenced cases, with 4 predominating local waves (AY.116, BQ.1.8, FY.4.1, LF.7.3.2), which were rare globally (<0.5%) during their detection period. Overall, common symptoms among positive cases were cough (91.5%), nasal discharge (76.7%), and fever (53.1%). Loss of sense of smell was strongly predictive of COVID-19 in the pre-Omicron era, but body malaise, sore throat, joint pain, and nasal discharge were predictive during the Omicron period. Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 increasingly shows seasonal annual patterns in coastal Kenya, with its clinical features resembling established endemic respiratory viruses. Its case burden is most pronounced in young adults. Locally dominant genetic variants may differ from those globally.

Indexed as

coastal KenyaCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2symptomswaves

Identifiers

PMID41859701
PMCPMC12996870

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.