Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41866365›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2026

Sensitivity comparison of longitudinal cognitive function indicators of Alzheimer's disease after mild cognitive impairment: a prospective cohort study.

Guiya Guo, Wangchen Song, Aimin Wang, Qingxia Cui, Xinyu Yang, Yanxia Wang, Yonghua Ma, Hairui Han, Zihui Li, Zhaoxue Zhang and 3 more

Abstract readComparative Study
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Guiya GuoDepartment of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, China.
Wangchen SongDepartment of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, China.
Aimin WangDepartment of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, China.
Qingxia CuiDepartment of Mathematical Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, China.
Xinyu YangDepartment of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, China.
Yanxia WangDepartment of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, China.
Yonghua MaDepartment of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, China.
Hairui HanDepartment of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, China.
Zihui LiDepartment of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, China.
Zhaoxue ZhangDepartment of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, China.
Weijing MengExperimental Teaching Center for Public Health and Management, School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, China.
Suzhen WangDepartment of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, China. wangsz@sdsmu.edu.cn.
Fuyan ShiDepartment of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, China. shifuyan@sdsmu.edu.cn.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China 81803337National Natural Science Foundation of China 81872719Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation ZR2023MH313Shandong Provincial Youth Innovation Team Development Plan of Colleges and Universities 2019-6-156, Lu-Jiao
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Accurate prediction of progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) is critical for early intervention. Many existing models lack the ability to capture the nonlinear nature of cognitive decline and individual heterogeneity. This study employed a semi‑parametric joint model to analyze longitudinal cognitive trajectories and identify robust predictors of conversion. Data from 596 participants (184 AD converters, 412 stable MCI) were obtained from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). Longitudinal assessments included ADAS‑Cog13, ADAS‑Cog11, CDR‑SB, FAQ, RAVLT‑IR, RAVLT‑L, and MMSE. A semi‑parametric joint model combining B‑splines for the longitudinal process with a Cox survival submodel was fitted for each cognitive measure. Model performance was evaluated using AIC, BIC, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), time‑dependent C‑index, dynamic AUC, and calibration curves. Subgroup analyses were conducted by APOE‑ε4 carrier status. In multivariable joint models, APOE‑ε4 carriage was a consistent risk factor (HR range: 1.38-1.77). Higher scores on ADAS‑Cog13 (HR = 3.71 per SD), ADAS‑Cog11 (HR = 2.71), CDR‑SB (HR = 3.79), and FAQ (HR = 2.85) increased the hazard of conversion, whereas higher scores on RAVLT‑IR (HR = 0.23), RAVLT‑L (HR = 0.14), and MMSE (HR = 0.53) were protective. All models showed high ICCs (0.94-0.98) and moderate‑to‑good predictive accuracy over 2, 5, and 8 year horizons (C‑index: 0.585-0.668). CDR‑SB and FAQ exhibited the strongest effect sizes and clearest dose‑dependent trajectories across APOE‑ε4 subgroups. Calibration curves demonstrated good agreement between predicted and observed survival. The semi‑parametric joint model effectively captures nonlinear cognitive‑functional decline and provides validated predictions of AD risk. APOE‑ε4 genotype combined with longitudinal monitoring of CDR‑SB and FAQ offers a robust framework for stratifying progression risk in clinical MCI management.

Indexed as

Alzheimer DiseaseCognitionCognitive DysfunctionAgedAged, 80 and overApolipoprotein E4Disease ProgressionFemaleHumansLongitudinal StudiesMaleProspective StudiesApolipoprotein E43 Alzheimer’s disease4 CDR-SB5 FAQ6 Mild cognitive impairment7 Risk prediction8 Semi-parametric joint model

Identifiers

PMID41866365
PMCPMC13149985

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.