ArticleAmerican journal of translational research2026
A nomogram for predicting incontinence-associated dermatitis in Chinese patients with severe acute pancreatitis: a retrospective analysis.
Article in American journal of translational research, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
objectiveTo identify the incidence of and risk factors for incontinence-associated dermatitis (IAD) among Chinese patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) to facilitate the development of a predictive risk assessment model.
methodsA prediction model was constructed using data from 302 SAP patients treated at West China Hospital, Sichuan University, from January 2020 to December 2022. The dataset was divided into training (n=183), testing (n=79), and external validation (n=40) sets. Predictors for incontinence-associated dermatitis were identified through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. A nomogram was established to predict the occurrence of incontinence-associated dermatitis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to evaluate the model's performance.
resultsA total of 302 SAP patients showed a 57% incidence of IAD. Independent predictors included acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II scores of 15 or higher, fecal incontinence, stool frequency greater than 3 times per day, watery stool, and the use of herbal enemas. In the training set, the model showed an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.836 (95% CI: 0.779-0.894), with sensitivity and specificity values of 86.5% and 66.7%, respectively. The testing set yielded an AUC of 0.825 (95% CI: 0.728-0.921), with sensitivity of 82.0% and specificity of 72.4%. External validation using an independent dataset produced an AUC of 0.788 (95% CI: 0.644-0.933), with a sensitivity of 92.9% and a specificity of 57.7%.
conclusionThe nomogram provides a simple and accurate tool for the prompt identification of patients with incontinence-associated dermatitis.
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