Evidence mapPaperPMID 41883191Full record

SynthesisESC heart failure2026

Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists for prevention of heart failure events in type 2 diabetes and/or obesity.

Keerthenan Raveendra, Tobin Joseph, Jing Kang, Ben Hurdus, Uther Cutting, Mohammad Haris, Tanina Younsi, Amaan Aslam, Mark Petrie, Marco Metra and 4 more

Abstract readMeta-AnalysisSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in ESC heart failure, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Keerthenan RaveendraFaculty of Medicine and Health, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8766-9433
Tobin JosephLeeds Institute for Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, 6 Clarendon Way, Leeds LS2 9DA, UK.
Jing KangCentre for Clinical Translational Science, Faculty of Dentistry, Oral and Craniofacial Sciences, King's College London, London, UK.
Ben HurdusLeeds Institute for Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, 6 Clarendon Way, Leeds LS2 9DA, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8149-3449
Uther CuttingFaculty of Medicine and Health, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
Mohammad HarisLeeds Institute for Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, 6 Clarendon Way, Leeds LS2 9DA, UK.ORCID 0009-0007-3859-7809
Tanina YounsiDepartment of Cardiology, Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, Leeds LS1 3AX, UK.ORCID 0009-0000-3680-4180
Amaan AslamFaculty of Medicine and Health, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
Mark PetrieInstitute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Marco MetraInstitute of Cardiology, ASST Spedali Civili di Brescia and Department of Medical and Surgical Specialties, Radiological Sciences, and Public Health, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy.
Ramzi A AjjanLeeds Institute for Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, 6 Clarendon Way, Leeds LS2 9DA, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1636-3725
Jianhua WuWolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6093-599X
Chris P GaleLeeds Institute for Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, 6 Clarendon Way, Leeds LS2 9DA, UK.
Ramesh NadarajahLeeds Institute for Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, 6 Clarendon Way, Leeds LS2 9DA, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9895-9356

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionHeart failure (HF) is a common sequela of diabetes and obesity. Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists may prevent HF events. This meta-analysis estimates absolute risk reduction (ARR) and number needed to treat (NNT) for GLP-1 receptor agonists to prevent one HF event in patients with type 2 diabetes and/or obesity, including those without baseline HF.

methodsThe Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Central databases were searched to 04 April 2025 for placebo-controlled randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of GLP-1 receptor agonists in a type 2 diabetes and/or obesity indication with a prespecified HF event endpoint. Random effects meta-analysis using the Mantel-Haenszel Method was performed to synthesize risk ratios (RR), ARRs, and NNTs with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

resultsTwelve placebo-controlled RCTs involving 95 023 patients were included. GLP-1 receptor agonists reduced HF events by 12% (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.82-0.95; ARR 0.42%, 95% CI 0.17%-0.62%; NNT 238, 95% CI 161-588), and, in those without baseline HF, by 19% (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.72-0.90; ARR 0.60%, 95% CI 0.32%-0.89%; NNT 167, 95% CI 113-313). Semaglutide reduced the risk of HF events by 16% (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.74-0.95; ARR 0.62%, 95% CI 0.19%-1.00%; NNT 161, 95% CI 100-526), and by 31% in those without baseline HF (RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.55-0.88; ARR 1.25%, 95% CI 0.48%-1.82%; NNT 80, 95% CI 55-208).

conclusionGLP-1 receptor agonists have limited absolute benefit for preventing HF events in patients with type 2 diabetes and/or obesity, including in those without baseline HF. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO: CRD420251074882.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor AgonistsHeart FailureObesityHumansHypoglycemic AgentsRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicSemaglutideGlucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor AgonistsHypoglycemic AgentsSemaglutideGLP-1 receptor agonistsHeart failureMeta-analysisObesityType 2 diabetes

Identifiers

PMID41883191
PMCPMC13064920

What Socratic holds

Texttitle and abstract
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.