Evidence mapPaperPMID 41889428Full record

ArticleDigital health

Identifying risk factors and predicting stroke using Bayesian networks: Evidence from NHANES 2011-2020.

Ju Zhao, Mingyang Zhang, Hongnian Wang

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Digital health. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Ju ZhaoDepartment of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Henan Medical University, Xinxiang, China.
Mingyang ZhangSchool of Social Sciences, Henan Normal University, Xinxiang, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7734-1714
Hongnian WangKey Laboratory of Digital-Intelligent Disease Surveillance and Health Governance, North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7543-3957

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Stroke is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, representing a major cerebrovascular disorder. Early identification of stroke-related risk factors is essential for implementing effective prevention and management strategies. This study aimed to develop an interpretable Bayesian network (BN)-based predictive model to identify key risk factors associated with stroke and to elucidate their complex interdependencies. Methods: This study analyzed cross-sectional data derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) spanning the period 2011-2020. Feature selection was performed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The BN structure was constructed using the hybrid HPC algorithm (H2PC), with conditional probability distributions estimated via maximum likelihood estimation. Both qualitative and quantitative analyses were conducted to examine node probabilities and elucidate dependencies between stroke and associated risk factors. Model performance was primarily assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and compared against established machine learning algorithms. Results: The final analytical sample comprised 20,535 individuals. Bayesian network analysis identified five variables with direct dependency relationships to stroke occurrence: age, sleep disorders, alcohol consumption, coronary heart disease, and diabetes. The BN model demonstrated superior predictive performance with an AUROC of 0.803 (95% CI: 0.773-0.833), significantly outperforming other machine learning approaches. Conclusions: The developed BN model provides an intuitive visualization of the probabilistic interdependencies among stroke risk factors while achieving competitive predictive accuracy. These findings demonstrate its exploratory value in unmasking complex risk pathways and suggest its potential to inform future stroke risk assessment and prevention strategies upon further longitudinal validation.

Indexed as

Bayesian networkdiseases predictionmachine learningrisk factorsstroke

Identifiers

PMID41889428
PMCPMC13014007

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.