Evaluating the impact of anthropogenic activities and climate change on distribution dynamics and habitat suitability of Lophira alata in Nigeria.

The red ironwood (Lophira alata) is a relic tropical African tree species that is increasingly threatened by human activities driven by its high economic value and its vulnerability is further heightened by climate change. However, the impact of these factors on the population distribution dynamics remains unassessed, creating an urgent conservation need. We leveraged geographic occurrence records from in situ assessments and global repositories, together with environmental predictors and human footprint indices, to evaluate the distribution dynamics of L. alata across its range in Nigeria (West Africa) under current and future (2050 and 2090) climatic scenarios. Results showed that precipitation of the coldest quarter and the human footprint index are the main climatic and non-climatic factors influencing the distribution of L. alata in Nigeria, respectively. The model predicted anthropic landscapes, swamp forests, and tropical lowland forests zones in southern Nigeria as the climatically stable and suitable habitats. Substantial habitat shifts are expected under future climate scenarios, with the greatest shrinkage predicted under the worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5) by the end of the century. A significant conservation gap exists because the predicted suitable habitats lie mostly outside designated protected areas. Our integrative conservation assessment suggests that the species would likely qualify for an “Endangered” status in Nigeria, indicating a higher regional risk despite evidence of natural succession. Collectively, our study identified the factors affecting the population trend and highlights the urgent need for site-specific conservation measures to prevent potential local extinction of L. alata in Nigeria.