Evidence mapPaperPMID 41896345Full record

ArticleCommunications medicine2026

Modelling the impact of increasing tuberculosis treatment coverage and addressing determinants of risk in men.

Alexandra S Richards, Mphatso D Phiri, Jasper Nidoi, Jeremiah Chakaya, Peter MacPherson, Bruce J Kirenga, John S Bimba, Chukwuebuka Ugwu, Rhoda Pola, S Bertel Squire and 1 more

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Article in Communications medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Alexandra S RichardsDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. alexandra.richards@glasgow.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9886-8104
Mphatso D PhiriMalawi Liverpool Wellcome Research Programme, Blantyre, Malawi.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4072-9715
Jasper NidoiClinical Sciences, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-5861
Jeremiah ChakayaDepartment of Medicine, Dermatology and Therapeutics, Kenyatta University, Nairobi, Kenya.
Peter MacPhersonSchool of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0329-9613
Bruce J KirengaResearch and Innovation, Makerere University Lung Institute, Kampala, Uganda.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2023-2840
John S BimbaZankli Research Centre, Bingham University, Karu, Nasarawa, Nigeria.
Chukwuebuka UgwuClinical Sciences, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Rhoda PolaPublic Health and Research Unit, Respiratory Society of Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6040-7123
S Bertel SquireFaculty of Clinical Sciences & International Public Health, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK.
Katherine C HortonDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundGlobally, the burden of tuberculosis falls more on men than women and children, and there are large gaps between men and women at all stages of exposure, disease incidence, and treatment. We examined the impact of addressing determinants of these gender gaps in Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, and Uganda.

methodsWe created a deterministic transmission model of tuberculosis, calibrated to country-specific data on prevalence, incidence, mortality, and notifications between 2010 and 2022. We examined the potential epidemiological impact of strategies to increase treatment coverage among men and decrease the effects of social and structural determinants that increase men's risk of developing TB. We investigated the impact (overall and by age and sex) on projected incidence and mortality in 2035, and notification rates between 2025 and 2030.

resultsOur modelling estimates that increasing treatment coverage among men could reduce incidence in 2035 between 2.4% [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.2-6.0%] in Malawi and 23.0% [UI 16.8-29.3%] in Nigeria. Reducing men's excess risk of tuberculosis could similarly reduce incidence in 2035 between 9.8% [UI 7.5-12.6%] in Malawi and 30.1% [UI 24.1-40.5%] in Kenya. Impacts extend across the population with median estimates of country-level declines in incidence of between 0.9-17.8% and 1.4-22.2% in women and children, respectively, across the four countries.

conclusionsStrategies that prioritise increasing tuberculosis treatment coverage among men and mitigating men's higher susceptibility to tuberculosis could reduce disease burden for men, women, and children. Such gender-responsive strategies are essential to ensure a person-centred tuberculosis response and accelerate global progress towards the EndTB targets.

Identifiers

PMID41896345
PMCPMC13194917

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.