ArticleAnnals of medicine2026
A prognostic model based on metabolic indicators for recurrent acute pancreatitis in hypertriglyceridemia patients: a retrospective cohort study.
Article in Annals of medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Observational
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10 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
backgroundHypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis (HTG-AP) is associated with a high risk of recurrence. This study aimed to identify risk factors for HTG-AP recurrence and to develop a predictive model integrating metabolic and clinical indicators.
methodsWe retrospectively enrolled patients with HTG-AP treated at Weifang People's Hospital between January 2019 and October 2023. Independent predictors of recurrence were identified using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, and a predictive model was constructed based on significant variables. A nomogram was developed to visualize the model. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to assess recurrence risk across different risk strata. Model performance was evaluated using the C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Internal validation was performed using bootstrap resampling and repeated cross-validation.
resultsA total of 293 patients were included, of whom 63 (21.5%) developed recurrence within 2 years of follow-up. Multivariate analysis identified the visceral adipose tissue index (
conclusionThis prediction model showed high accuracy for early risk stratification of HTG-AP recurrence and may support individualized follow-up and intervention strategies.
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