Evidence mapPaperPMID 41979200Full record

Observational studyArchives of endocrinology and metabolism2026

Development and validation of a clinical prediction model for postoperative weight regain after bariatric surgery using inflammatory, metabolic, and ferritin biomarkers.

Yaxin Liu, Chenxi Fu, Longhao Sun

Abstract readObservational StudyValidation Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in Archives of endocrinology and metabolism, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

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2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Yaxin LiuTianjin Medical University General Hospital Endocrinology and Metabolism Department Tianjin China Endocrinology and Metabolism Department, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China.
Chenxi FuTianjin Medical University General Hospital General Surgery Department Tianjin China General Surgery Department, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China.
Longhao SunTianjin Medical University General Hospital General Surgery Department Tianjin China General Surgery Department, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivePostoperative weight regain remains a challenge after bariatric surgery and affects long-term outcomes. This study aimed to develop a clinical model to predict weight regain within 12 months, prior to surgery by using preoperative inflammatory, metabolic, and ferritin as biomarkers. SUBJECTS AND

methodsThis retrospective observational study included 394 patients with obesity who underwent bariatric surgery (2020-2023), including laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) and laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB). Patients were divided into a training set (70%, n = 276) and a validation set (30%, n = 118) using a random number table. Weight regain was defined as a ≥ 10% increase from the postoperative nadir (median time to regain: 8.2 months). Key variables included peripheral blood inflammatory markers [systemic immune-inflammation index (SII, calculated as platelet count × neutrophil count/lymphocyte count), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR)], glycolipid metabolism indicators [low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C)], and ferritin levels. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify independent predictive variables, and the nomogram model was validated via calibration, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and decision curve analysis (DCA).

resultsThe weight regain rate was 19.9% (55/276) in the training set. Independent predictive variables included elevated SII (OR=1.004; 95% CI = 1.000-1.007), LDL-C (OR = 1.873; 95% CI = 1.054-3.329), ferritin (OR = 1.005; 95% CI = 1.003-1.008), and reduced HDL-C (OR = 0.103; 95% CI = 0.013-0.844) (all P < 0.05). The model showed strong discrimination (training AUC = 0.852, 95% CI = 0.795-0.910; validation AUC = 0.812, 95% CI = 0.709-0.915) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P > 0.05). DCA confirmed the model's clinical utility across threshold probabilities.

conclusionPreoperative SII, LDL-C, ferritin, and HDL-C levels effectively predict postoperative weight regain. Early monitoring of these biomarkers may guide personalized interventions to improve long-term outcomes.

Indexed as

Bariatric SurgeryFerritinsObesity, MorbidWeight GainAdultBiomarkersFemaleHumansInflammationMaleMiddle AgedRetrospective StudiesBiomarkersFerritinsBariatric surgerybiomarkerskey predictorspostoperative weight regain

Identifiers

PMID41979200
PMCPMC13073141

What Socratic holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.