Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41985674›Full record

ArticleBiological psychiatry. Cognitive neuroscience and neuroimaging2026

Divergent Pathways Taken in Adolescence Predict Embracing or Resisting Moderate-to-Heavy Drinking in Young Adulthood.

Camila González, Tam T Nguyen-Louie, Edith V Sullivan, Adolf Pfefferbaum, James Klo, Joseph Dehoney, Qingyu Zhao, Ehsan Adeli, Susan F Tapert, Kilian M Pohl

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Biological psychiatry. Cognitive neuroscience and neuroimaging, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Camila GonzálezDepartment of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, California.
Tam T Nguyen-LouieDepartment of Psychiatry, University of California San Diego, San Diego, California.
Edith V SullivanDepartment of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, California.
Adolf PfefferbaumDepartment of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, California; Center for Health Sciences, SRI International, Menlo Park, California.
James KloCenter for Health Sciences, SRI International, Menlo Park, California.
Joseph DehoneyDepartment of Computer Science, Stanford University, Stanford, California.
Qingyu ZhaoWeill Medical College, Cornell University, New York, New York.
Ehsan AdeliDepartment of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, California; Department of Computer Science, Stanford University, Stanford, California.
Susan F TapertDepartment of Psychiatry, University of California San Diego, San Diego, California.
Kilian M PohlDepartment of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, California; Department of Electrical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California. Electronic address: kpohl@stanford.edu.

Funding

Sex Differences in Autonomic Nervous System Function and Depression Across AdolescenceU01AA021696 · NIAAA · SRI INTERNATIONAL · PI Fiona C Baker · 2012 to 2026
$12.2M
NCANDA: Data Analysis Resource - Uploading Legacy Data to NDAU24AA021697 · NIAAA · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI Adolf Pfefferbaum, Kilian Maria Pohl · 2016 to 2026
$12.2M
National Consortium on Alcohol and NeuroDevelopment in Adolescence: San DiegoU01AA021692 · NIAAA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI Susan F. Tapert · 2012 to 2026
$11.8M
NCANDA Research Project Site: DukeU01AA021681 · NIAAA · DUKE UNIVERSITY · PI DAVID B. GOLDSTON · 2012 to 2026
$9.8M
The TEEN Study: The Impact of Adolescent Drinking on Connectivity in the BrainU01AA021691 · NIAAA · OREGON HEALTH & SCIENCE UNIVERSITY · PI Angelica Marie Morales, Bonnie J. Nagel · 2012 to 2026
$8.5M
CEREBELLAR STRUCTURE AND FUNCTION IN ALCOHOLISMR01AA010723 · NIAAA · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI SULLIVAN, EDITH VIONI, ZAHR, NATALIE M · 1996 to 2025
$8.3M
NCANDA Research Project Site: University of Pittsburgh (NCANDA-PITT)U01AA021690 · NIAAA · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI DUNCAN B. CLARK, BEATRIZ LUNA · 2012 to 2026
$7.6M
National Consortium on Alcohol and NeuroDevelopment in Adolescence (NCANDA): Administrative ResourceU24AA021695 · NIAAA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI SANDRA A BROWN, Susan F. Tapert · 2016 to 2026
$6.0M
Interpretable Deep Forecasting of Hazardous Substance Use during High SchoolR01DA057567 · NIDA · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI Kilian Maria Pohl, Susan F. Tapert · 2022 to 2026
$2.3M
Longitudinal Analysis of Diffusion Tensor Imaging to Discover Adolescent Alcohol Use EffectR00AA028840 · NIAAA · WEILL MEDICAL COLL OF CORNELL UNIV · PI Qingyu Zhao · 2024 to 2026
$747k
NIAAA NIH HHS R00 AA028840NIAAA NIH HHS R01 AA010723NIAAA NIH HHS U01 AA021681NIAAA NIH HHS U01 AA021690NIAAA NIH HHS U01 AA021691NIAAA NIH HHS U01 AA021692NIAAA NIH HHS U01 AA021696NIAAA NIH HHS U24 AA021695NIAAA NIH HHS U24 AA021697NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA057567
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundHeavy alcohol drinking during adolescence is a major public health concern and a primary risk factor for developing alcohol use disorder (AUD) in adulthood. Identifying robust, modifiable predictors that distinguish adolescents who initiate heavy drinking from those who maintain low consumption can guide targeted prevention strategies.

methodsWe analyzed longitudinal data from 285 participants (141 female and 144 male) of the NCANDA (National Consortium on Alcohol and Neurodevelopment in Adolescence) study. All participants were no-to-low drinkers at age 15 years, remained in the study within a year of turning 21, and were followed annually, making this neuroimaging study the largest of its kind. Each visit consisted of 240 measurements (spanning cognitive, environmental, neuroimaging, and psychosocial domains), which were used to train a deep learning model to predict drinking levels and learn an embedding space capturing key risk factors. Individual developmental profiles were then clustered into distinct pathways across ages 15 to 21.

resultsSix unique drinking pathways were identified. Two pathways leading to heavy drinking were characterized by early exposure to peer drinking, positive alcohol expectancies, and higher sensation seeking, predominantly among males. Three moderate-drinking pathways showed gradual increases in consumption while maintaining lower peer drinking exposure. One pathway maintained no-to-low drinking, marked by negative expectancies toward alcohol and low social reinforcement.

conclusionsDistinct developmental pathways highlight socially driven motivators as key modifiable risk factors underlying adolescent drinking. Targeting peer influence and alcohol-related expectancies could help divert youth from trajectories leading to heavy drinking and reduce the future burden of AUD.

Indexed as

Adolescent drinkingAlcohol use disorderDeep learningDrinking pathwaysLongitudinal clusteringRisk and resilience factors

Identifiers

PMID41985674
PMCPMC13322227

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.