A systematic review of spatial epidemiological modeling approaches applied during the COVID-19 pandemic.

backgroundA wide range of epidemiological modeling approaches have been applied to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, which presents an opportunity to assess common approaches applied to specific research questions. Spatial models interrogate how heterogeneities and host movement dynamics influence local and regional patterns of disease, issues that were of great interest for understanding and controlling SARS-CoV-2.

objectiveHere, we present a systematic review of spatial epidemiological modeling approaches of SARS-CoV-2. We describe common themes and highlight unique strategies, providing a foundation for researchers to devise spatial models most appropriate for future pathogens and epidemics. Our review also categorizes the research questions that were addressed with spatial models, highlights parameter estimation techniques, and describes the cyber infrastructure used for model development.

methodsWe conducted a systematic review using Web of Science and a standardized set of keywords, followed by thorough examination of abstracts and full texts to determine which studies met our inclusion criteria. To guide our description and comparisons of models, we developed a Geography, Population, Movement (GPM) framework that conceptualizes the interactions between three distinct subcomponents of any spatial model. The geographic model represents the physical arena in which the model is implemented, the intra-population model describes the transmission and disease processes that occur within distinct spatial units of the geography, and the movement model describes the algorithms that dictate how hosts move among spatial units within the geography.

resultsThe search identified a total of 193 articles, of which 109 were included in our review. The most abundant intra-population modeling methods were agent-based (47.7%) and compartmental modeling (29.4%) approaches. Movement models ranged in complexity, with the most complex models implementing commuter movement among many points of interest in the geographic arena, which were sometimes parameterized by fine-scale mobility data. Geographic models ranged from describing microcosms, such as single classrooms, all the way up to multi-country models. Of the 63.3% of models studies that specified the programming language used, we detected ten different languages, with Matlab and Python being the most frequent, although only 30.6% of studies provided open-access code for their models. We also described eight specialized software systems that were used to construct agent-based or compartment models of COVID-19.

conclusionsOur review identified and characterized a variety of spatial modeling strategies and software that were usefully employed to address many relevant epidemiological questions for COVID-19. Future research is needed to quantitatively assess which modeling approaches are most appropriate in specific situations, to answer specific questions, or to apply to certain disease systems. Moreover, future cyber-infrastructure could help to modularize and standardize modeling approaches, which would increase transparency and reproducibility, and which would facilitate a detailed examination of which model attributes relate to model performance in a variety of contexts.