Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42001163›Full record

ArticleWorld journal of surgical oncology2026

Risk factor and prediction model for malignant pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm.

Guo Yu, Zihao Guo, Xiaoxiao Xu, Kena Zhou, Leheng Liu, Yi Zang, Rong Wan, Ge Yu, Wenqin Xiao

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in World journal of surgical oncology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Guo Yu *Department of Gastroenterology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200240, China.
Zihao Guo *Department of Gastroenterology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200240, China.
Xiaoxiao Xu *Department of Pathology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200240, China.
Kena ZhouDepartment of Gastroenterology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200240, China.
Leheng LiuDepartment of Gastroenterology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200240, China.
Yi Zang *Department of Gastroenterology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200240, China.
Rong Wan *Department of Gastroenterology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200240, China. doctorwanrong@126.com.
Ge Yu *Department of Gastroenterology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200240, China. ge.yu@shgh.cn.
Wenqin Xiao *Department of Gastroenterology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200240, China. zhunikaixin_xwq@163.com.

Funding

Clinical Research Innovation Plan of Shanghai General Hospital No. CCTR-2023C01National Natural Science Foundation of China No. 82100683
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIntraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is a relatively uncommon pancreatic cystic tumor that serves as a significant precursor lesion closely associated with pancreatic cancer. This study aimed to identify risk factors for malignant transformation of IPMN and develop a corresponding predictive model.

methodsPatients with IPMN admitted to Shanghai General Hospital between May 2012 and January 2025 were included in this study. Patients were stratified into benign and malignant groups. Characteristic parameters and laboratory results were collected. The training set and test set were randomly divided at a ratio of 7:3. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was used to select potential prognostic factors. A nomogram was developed by firth penalty logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration curves were used to evaluate the model’s predictive performance.

resultsAmong 121 patients analysed, four independent predictors of malignancy were identified: CA19-9 Elevation, classified as MD/MT, MTD_Log, and MPD_bc. We developed a nomogram with an area under the curve of 0.870 in the training set and 0.808 in the test set. The model showed strong predictive ability and showed good clinical usefulness.

conclusionsCA19-9 Elevation, classified as MD/MT, MTD_Log, and MPD_bc are independent risk factors for malignant IPMN. The established prediction model demonstrates good accuracy and may provide valuable guidance for clinical decision-making.

Indexed as

Adenocarcinoma, MucinousCarcinoma, Pancreatic DuctalNomogramsPancreatic Intraductal NeoplasmsPancreatic NeoplasmsAgedBiomarkers, TumorCA-19-9 AntigenFemaleFollow-Up StudiesHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisRisk FactorsROC CurveBiomarkers, TumorCA-19-9 AntigenIntraductal papillary mucinous neoplasmNomogramPrediction modelRisk factor

Identifiers

PMID42001163
PMCPMC13220604

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.