ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Europe2026
Spatiotemporal dynamics of leptospirosis in Europe: a retrospective observational study with prospective projections.
Article in The Lancet regional health. Europe, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Regional and Seasonal Dynamics of Leptospirosis in Ukraine, 2023-2025.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
14 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: Leptospirosis is a widespread zoonotic disease caused by Methods: In this study, we present a Europe-wide spatiotemporal assessment of leptospirosis risk, integrating epidemiological, environmental and climate data. Using monthly leptospirosis cases from the European Surveillance System (TESSy) between 2010 and 2023, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to identify key risk factors, including the 3-month Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-3), mean temperature (Tmean), forest human nexus and mammal richness. Future changes in disease incidence rate were also investigated under two climate/socio-economic scenarios, namely the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 4.5 and 8.5. Findings: Over the 2010-2023 period, leptospirosis risk was higher in areas with elevated SPEI-3 (maximum relative risk [RR] = 1.62; 95% CrI: 1.20-2.10) and higher Tmean values (maximum RR = 5.28; 95% CrI: 2.65-11.12), both with a 1-month lag. Leptospirosis incidence rates were greater in warm coastal regions and densely populated areas. We observed a complex relationship between disease risk and the forest human nexus (maximum RR = 1.23; 95% CrI: 0.96-1.55), and a negative association with mammal species richness (minimum RR = 0.63; 95% CrI: 0.40-0.98), suggesting a potential dilution effect. Finally, under future climate scenarios, we found that leptospirosis incidence rate is projected to increase, particularly under high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with larger rises expected in the long-term period (2081-2100) than in the short-term period (2041-2060). Interpretation: Climate and environmental factors can elevate the risk of leptospirosis with climate change projected to have a significant impact on future risk levels. Our findings underscore the need for proactive measures to mitigate the effects of climate-sensitive zoonoses, such as leptospirosis, across Europe. Integrating spatial and temporal disease models into early warning systems, alongside environmental management and climate mitigation strategies, can support timely interventions and enhance public health resilience. Funding: This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, private, or not-for-profit sectors.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.