Evidence mapPaperPMID 42007221Full record

ArticleJournal of the National Cancer Center2026

Upper gastrointestinal cancers global burden profile, trends, contributors, and attributable change in life expectancy from 1990 to 2021.

Yi Teng, Haoyu Zhang, Siyi He, Mengdi Cao, Qianru Li, Nuopei Tan, Jiachen Wang, Yujie Wu, Tianyi Li, Yuanjie Zheng and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the National Cancer Center, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Yi TengNational Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Haoyu ZhangSydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Siyi HeNational Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Mengdi CaoNational Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Qianru LiNational Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Nuopei TanNational Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Jiachen WangNational Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Yujie WuNational Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Tianyi LiNational Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Yuanjie ZhengNational Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Changfa XiaNational Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Wanqing ChenNational Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Upper gastrointestinal (GI) cancers, comprising esophageal cancer (EC) and gastric cancer (GC), remain a significant global health burden with disproportionate geographic distribution of incidence and mortality. A comprehensive assessment of global and regional patterns and trends of upper GI cancer burden is essential to inform targeted prevention strategies. Methods: Data were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021. We examined the incidence, mortality, and life expectancy (LE) impacts of upper GI cancers from 1990 to 2021 across 21 GBD world regions. Trends were assessed using age-standardized rates and average annual percentage change (AAPC). Non-modifiable demographic factors and modifiable risk-attributable burdens were analyzed. A three-step decomposition method was applied to quantify the contribution of upper GI cancer to changes in LE. Results: In 2021, upper GI cancers accounted for 1.80 million new cases and 1.49 million deaths globally, with Asia contributing over 70% of the burden. Global age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for upper GI cancers declined from 1990 to 2021, with AAPC of -1.53% and -1.87%, respectively, although absolute incidence and deaths increased due to population growth and ageing, contributing to 1.13 million deaths for upper GI cancers. Population expansion and ageing drove increases in age-related deaths during the study period and were offset by reduced incidence and case fatality. Risk-attributable deaths declined for most modifiable factors, with tobacco remaining the leading risk, responsible for 21.9% of all deaths. A total of 0.24 year of LE gained was attributable to upper GI cancers from 1990 to 2021. Regionally, high-income Asia Pacific achieved the greatest gains in LE (0.67 years). GC predominantly contributed to the most gains, whereas EC mostly contributed to LE changes in Central and East Asia (0.27 years and 0.19 years, respectively). Conclusions: Although the burden of upper GI cancers has declined, progress is uneven, and the absolute burden remains high in Asia. Continued region-specific prevention, risk factor control, and equitable access to early detection and treatment are essential to further reduce the disease burden and close global disparities.

Indexed as

AgeingIncidenceLife expectancyMortalityRisk factorsUpper gastrointestinal cancer

Identifiers

PMID42007221
PMCPMC13083648

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.