ArticleJMIR public health and surveillance2026
Global Heated Tobacco Product User Estimates, 2014-2024: Descriptive Surveillance Study Using Manufacturer Disclosures.
Article in JMIR public health and surveillance, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Relative affordability of heated tobacco products and cigarettes: a cross-country comparative analysis of 55 countries.Harm reduction journal · 2026Article
- Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: Heated tobacco products (HTPs) expanded rapidly after 2014; yet globally, comparable estimates of the number of HTP users remain limited. National surveys rarely include standardized HTP measures, and international surveillance systems do not provide harmonized global user counts. Objective: The aim of the study is to construct a reproducible annual global time series of HTP user estimates for 2014-2024 using publicly available manufacturer disclosures, quantify uncertainty, and compare these estimates with user counts derived from nationally representative survey prevalence data where available. Methods: We compiled annual HTP user counts and heated-tobacco stick shipment volumes from publicly available reports of major transnational tobacco companies. In the primary series, we used company-reported user counts when available. For company-year observations without reported user counts, we estimated user numbers by converting reported shipment volumes into implied user counts, applying brand-specific assumptions on average daily consumption per user. As an alternative sensitivity analysis, all company user counts were excluded, and all shipments were converted using a common literature-based consumption parameter. As a complementary check, nationally representative current-use prevalence data from 35 countries were converted to user counts. Results: Global HTP users reached 48.9 million in 2024 in the primary series (range 45.6-52.1 million). The shipment-only series showed higher totals (67.9 million; range 59.7-78.7 million). Survey-based estimates yielded 21.8 million users across 35 countries, reflecting partial geographic coverage. Conclusions: A transparent, updateable global time series documents rapid HTP growth from 2014 to 2024, with 2024 totals ranging from 45.6 to 78.7 million users depending on the estimation approach. As standardized HTP measures are incorporated into national surveys, future estimates can be refined, and uncertainty reduced.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What Socratic holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.