Athletic ability discrepancy, risk-taking, and recovery quality as predictors of match-related injuries in adolescent soccer players.

This prospective cohort study aimed to identify predictors of match-related injuries in 40 male adolescent soccer players (mean age 15.25 ± 0.87 years) across 20 regional league matches during the 2023–2024 season. Prior to each match, players completed validated assessments of mental fatigue, recovery quality, perceived match load, perceived injury risk, risk-taking behaviors, and athletic ability, with self- and coach ratings calculated to determine the Athletic Ability Discrepancy Score. All musculoskeletal injuries, regardless of time loss or medical attention, were documented by physiotherapists based on Fuller and Ekstrand’s criteria. Results revealed that 47.5% of players sustained at least one injury (26 injuries total), with a rate of 24.9 injuries per 1,000 match hours. Contusions (46.2%) and sprains (30.8%) were most common. Multivariate GEE analysis identified three significant injury predictors: a higher Athletic Ability Discrepancy Score (OR = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.10–1.99, p = 0.01), lower recovery quality (OR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.57–0.99, p = 0.04), and greater risk-taking behaviors (OR = 1.54, 95% CI: 1.03–2.32, p = 0.04). Mental fatigue, match load, and perceived injury risk were not significant predictors (P > 0.05). These findings highlight the need for psychological screening, particularly for other self-rating discrepancies, and interventions promoting realistic self-assessment, behavioural regulation, and structured recovery in youth injury prevention.