ArticleFrontiers in public health2026
Spatio-temporal patterns and determinants of measles incidence in Ethiopia between 2018 and 2024.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Despite the availability of an effective vaccine, measles remains a major public health concern in Ethiopia, with recurrent outbreaks and substantial spatial heterogeneity. Understanding its spatio-temporal patterns and determinants is critical for optimizing control strategies and achieving elimination goals. Methods: A retrospective spatio-temporal analysis was conducted using national measles surveillance data from 2018-2024, aggregated at the zonal level. Geographic clustering was assessed using Moran's I, Getis-Ord Gi Results: Between 2018 and 2024, 71,635 measles cases were reported, with the highest burdens observed in Oromia, Somali, Southern Ethiopia, and parts of Amhara. Significant spatial clustering was detected (Moran's I = 0.154, Conclusion: Measles transmission in Ethiopia exhibits clear spatial clustering and temporal persistence, strongly influenced by socioeconomic inequities, human concentration, and climatic conditions. Incorporating spatio-temporal modeling into routine surveillance can enhance early detection and guide geographically targeted immunization, nutrition, and equity-focused interventions toward measles elimination.
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