ArticleResearch square2026
How Consumers Transition Between Illicit and Legal Cannabis Markets in Early Legalization Periods? Evidence from a National Panel with a Recent Policy Shock.
Article in Research square, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Introduction: States across the US continue to legalize recreational cannabis to shift consumers from illicit to regulated markets. Yet evidence on whether legalization increases the share of cannabis obtained legally remains limited. This study examines how legalization influences cannabis sourcing behavior using nationally representative panel data and recent policy variation. Methods: We use three waves of panel survey data collected in June 2024 (pre-legalization), January 2025, and August 2025. The analytic sample is a balanced panel of 578 adults (1,734 observations). We estimate difference-in-differences models of the proportion of cannabis obtained from legal sources, exploiting Ohio's August 2024 legalization within a multi-state context. Models control for baseline policy status, demographics, and wave fixed effects. Results: Legal sourcing varies substantially across policy environments. Individuals residing in states with fully legal cannabis markets report significantly higher reliance on legal sources than those in fully illegal states (31.6 percentage points, p<0.001). Exploiting the timing of Ohio's legalization, we find a 5.3 percentage-point increase in the share of cannabis obtained from legal sources (p<0.01), although estimates are sensitive to sample restrictions. Legal sourcing is higher among more educated individuals and lower among Black non-Hispanic respondents. Discussion: These findings suggest legalization can shift cannabis purchasing from illicit to legal markets in the short run, but the transition is incomplete and heterogeneous. By directly measuring legal sourcing, this study provides new evidence on substitution between illicit and regulated markets. The results highlight the role of broader policy and market conditions in shaping consumer responses.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What Socratic holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.