Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42063009›Full record

ArticleBMC endocrine disorders2026

Prognostic biomarkers of future diabetes in South Asian women diagnosed with gestational diabetes: a prospective cohort study.

Sandi M Azab, Amel Lamri, Anastasia Gayowsky, Meera Shanmuganathan, Dipika Desai, Natalie C Williams, Zachary Kroezen, Rahul Chanchlani, Elizabeth K Darling, Philip Britz-McKibbin and 7 more

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in BMC endocrine disorders, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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0citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

17 authors.

Sandi M AzabDepartment of Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Amel LamriDepartment of Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Anastasia GayowskyICES (Formerly known as Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Meera ShanmuganathanDepartment of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Dipika DesaiPopulation Health Research Institute, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Natalie C WilliamsDepartment of Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Zachary KroezenDepartment of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Rahul ChanchlaniICES (Formerly known as Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Elizabeth K DarlingICES (Formerly known as Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Philip Britz-McKibbinDepartment of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Joseph BeyenePopulation Health Research Institute, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Wei DengPeter Boris Centre for Addictions Research, St. Joseph's Healthcare Hamilton, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Marie PigeyreDepartment of Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Katherine M MorrisonDepartment of Pediatrics, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Gita WahiDepartment of Pediatrics, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Russell J de SouzaMary Heersink School of Global Health and Social Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Sonia S AnandDepartment of Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada. anands@mcmaster.ca.

Funding

CIHR INC-109205Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada NA7283
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundGestational diabetes (GDM) confers an increased risk of future type-2 diabetes (T2D). We aimed to identify determinants of the progression of GDM to T2D in South Asian women and develop a precision prognostics model for potential future clinical application.

methodsThis study included 247 South Asian women with GDM from the prospective South Asian Birth Cohort (START) study in Ontario, Canada. Metabolomics was performed on 2nd trimester fasting serum samples by multisegment injection-capillary electrophoresis-mass spectrometry. We determined incidence of postpartum T2D through validated diagnostic codes using health administrative data. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify predictors of incident T2D through backward elimination. We assessed diagnostic performance of models using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC ROC) and 5-fold cross-validation to assess model stability.

resultsOf 247 South Asian women diagnosed with GDM with a mean age of 30.9 years and median total follow-up of 9.7 years, 45 (18.2%) developed T2D within a median of 4.9 years. Pre-pregnancy body mass index, area-under-the-curve glucose, and level of education, were identified as the strongest determinants of T2D post-GDM (AUC ROC = 0.83 [95% Confidence Intervals (CI), 0.78-0.88]). Addition of metabolite biomarkers-specifically, the hypoxanthine-to-creatinine ratio-only modestly improved predictive performance (AUC ROC = 0.853 [CI, 0.80-0.91]). Folds mean (SD) of the AUC ROC from 5-fold cross-validation models was 0.81 (0.12).

conclusionsWe developed a parsimonious five-factor model combining clinical, anthropometric, and metabolic markers that accurately predicts T2D progression after GDM in South Asian women. This model can be potentially deployed at the time of GDM diagnosis to improve risk assessment and target intensive postpartum interventions.

Indexed as

BiomarkersDiabetes, GestationalDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2AdultAsia, SouthernFemaleFollow-Up StudiesHumansMetabolomicsOntarioPregnancyPrognosisProspective StudiesRisk FactorsSouth Asian PeopleBiomarkersBiomarkersGestational diabetesMetabolomicsPrecision prognosticsProspective birth cohortSouth Asian womenType-2 diabetes

Identifiers

PMID42063009
PMCPMC13285023

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.