ArticleJournal of Crohn's & colitis2026
Bayesian prior elicitation on the efficacy of medical therapies in perianal fistulizing Crohn's disease.
Article in Journal of Crohn's & colitis, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Optimising clinical trial design choices in inflammatory bowel disease.BMJ open gastroenterology · 2026Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
18 authors.
Funding
Abstract
BACKGROUND &
aimsRobust evidence for most licensed Crohn's disease therapies is lacking for perianal fistula outcomes due to a lack of dedicated clinical trials. This study aimed to use a Bayesian framework to determine the efficacy of medical therapies for perianal fistulizing Crohn's disease (PFCD).
methodsA formal prior elicitation exercise was conducted by a group of 11 gastroenterologists and 5 statisticians. Consensus priors were developed leveraging both existing published data and clinical expertise, to determine one-year fistula remission rates for medical treatments with 5 different mechanisms of action (anti-TNF, anti-integrin, anti-IL-12/23, anti-IL-23, and JAK inhibitor). Consensus priors on efficacy of each treatment were determined relative to an elicited consensus prior for placebo control.
resultsConsensus priors were obtained for the likelihood of fistula remission at 1 year. The prior mean, together with a 90% prior credible interval, of the one-year fistula remission rate was 0.22 (0.05, 0.46) for placebo, 0.58 (0.09, 0.96) for intravenous infliximab, 0.39 (0.06, 0.82) for adalimumab, 0.53 (0.09, 0.93) for subcutaneous infliximab, 0.24 (0.03, 0.60) for intravenous vedolizumab, 0.44 (0.05, 0.90) for upadacitinib, 0.34 (0.04, 0.77) for ustekinumab, and 0.36 (0.04, 0.82) for anti-IL-23 specific agents. Oral upadacitinib and subcutaneous infliximab demonstrated the highest probability for efficacy, alongside intravenous infliximab.
conclusionsWe have conducted the first Bayesian prior elicitation exercise in inflammatory bowel disease. The generated priors could be used to enhance the design and analysis of clinical trials in PFCD by improving estimation of treatment efficacy, minimizing sample sizes, and potentially reducing the need for placebo control arms.
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