ArticleDiabetes, obesity & metabolism2026
Variations in the Risk of New-Onset Diabetes Following COVID-19 Infection Across Body Mass Index, Deprivation, Ethnicity and Geographic Regions: Population-Based Cohort Study in 42 Million People in England.
Article in Diabetes, obesity & metabolism, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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1 citing paper in PubMed.
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
Abstract
aimsEvidence suggests that COVID-19 may be associated with an increased risk of diabetes. We aimed to examine this association by investigating the role of socioeconomic and metabolic factors on the risk of new-onset type 2 (T2D) and type 1 (T1D) diabetes after COVID-19 diagnosis. MATERIALS AND
methodsWe conducted a retrospective, population-based cohort study using linked electronic health records from NHS England's Secure Data Environment for England via the CVD-COVID-UK/COVID-IMPACT consortium. Adults (≥ 18 years), alive, registered with a general practice within 1 January 2020 and 28 May 2024 were included. Exposed individuals with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis and no prior diabetes were matched to up to three unexposed individuals without COVID-19 and diabetes on age, sex, region and deprivation. Flexible parametric survival models were used to estimate associations between COVID-19 and incident diabetes by sex and across age, BMI, deprivation, ethnicity, and region.
resultsOf 50 156 810 eligible individuals, 12 859 545 with a COVID-19 diagnosis and no prior diabetes were matched to 29 221 285 without COVID-19; the median follow-up was 2.4 years. Although BMI was strongly and positively associated with the risk of T2D, differences between exposed and unexposed individuals were little to none, with the excess risk concentrated in the first year (e.g., in 70-year-old men with BMI 35 kg/m
conclusionsIn this cohort, COVID-19 was associated with a modest, short-term increase in T2D risk and showed no meaningful association with T1D. Established metabolic, demographic and socioeconomic factors-including age, BMI, deprivation and ethnicity-were more strongly associated with T2D incidence than COVID-19 exposure.
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