Evidence mapPaperPMID 42118258Full record

ArticleDiabetologia2026

Staging intermediate hyperglycaemia for type 2 diabetes prevention: the ELSA-Brasil study.

Paula A Bracco, Maria I Schmidt, Danilo de Paula, Jayne S Feter, Michael Bergman, Bruce B Duncan

Abstract read
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Article in Diabetologia, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Paula A Bracco *Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6899-7386
Maria I Schmidt *Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil. maria.schmidt@ufrgs.br.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3837-0731
Danilo de PaulaPostgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3989-6989
Jayne S FeterPostgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4612-7301
Michael BergmanDepartment of Medicine, Holman Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes, Metabolism, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, VA New York Harbor Healthcare System, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2589-2976
Bruce B DuncanPostgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7491-2630

Funding

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico 151774/2024-2Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico 307003/2020-5Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico 308495/2019-5Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico 405545/2015-0Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico 408659/2024-6
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aims/hypothesisWe aimed to evaluate stages in the development of type 2 diabetes by combining fasting plasma glucose (FPG) with 1 h plasma glucose (PG) or HbA

methodsUsing data of 1174 middle- and older-aged Brazilian adults from the Rio Grande do Sul centre of the ELSA-Brasil cohort, 2017 to 2024, we developed stages based on previously recommended thresholds of mild (FPG: 5.6-6.0 mmol/l; 1 h PG: 6.7-8.5 mmol/l) and moderate (FPG: 6.1-6.9 mmol/l; 1 h PG: 8.6-11.5 mmol/l) hyperglycaemia. Similarly, we developed stages combining FPG levels with mild (39-41 mmol/mol; 5.7-5.9%) or moderate (42-46 mmol/mol; 6.0-6.4%) HbA

resultsThe FPG/1 h PG schema stratified participants into three stages of decreasing ISSI-2 levels and increasing frequency of high risk for complications. The relative risk of incident diabetes increased progressively up to stage 3 in crude and adjusted models (15.4 [95% CI 6.1, 38.8] and 11.4 [4.5, 18.0]), respectively. This schema achieved 89.1% sensitivity and 53.7% specificity in the prediction of incident diabetes. When staging was applied with the clinical score, specificity improved (60.3%), and the need for laboratory testing decreased by 27.1%. The lower frequency of altered HbA CONCLUSIONS/

interpretationFPG/1 h PG schemas resulted in a nuanced stratification of intermediate hyperglycaemia, with superior prognostic properties compared with FPG/HbA

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2HyperglycemiaAgedBlood GlucoseBrazilFastingFemaleGlycated HemoglobinHumansMaleMiddle AgedBlood GlucoseGlycated Hemoglobinhemoglobin A1c protein, humanClinical science and careEpidemiologyInsulin sensitivity and resistancePrediction and prevention of type 2 diabetes

Identifiers

PMID42118258
PMCPMC13310221

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.