ArticleJournal of epidemiology and global health2026
Temporal Trends and Forecasted Cardiac Arrest and Hypertension-Related Mortality in U.S. Adults, 2000-2035: A Nationwide CDC WONDER Multiple Cause-of-Death Study.
Article in Journal of epidemiology and global health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundCardiac arrest (CA) occurring in the setting of hypertension (HTN) represents a critical and under-recognized intersection of acute cardiovascular catastrophe and chronic vascular disease in the United States (U.S.). The coexistence of sudden cardiac dysfunction and long-standing HTN may amplify morbidity and mortality and contribute to persistent demographic and geographic disparities. This study characterizes 2000-2024 national trends in CA with concurrent HTN among U.S. adults and projects age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) through 2035.
methodsWe conducted a retrospective analysis of Multiple Cause-of-Death data from the CDC WONDER database for CA with HTN mortality among adults aged ≥ 25 years (2000-2024). We calculated AAMRs and used joinpoint regression to estimate annual percent changes (APCs) and the average APC (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We projected AAMRs through 2035 using Auto-ARIMA and Prophet time-series models in R (v4.5.0) and evaluated model performance using the root mean squared error (RMSE).
resultsFrom 2000 to 2024, there were 1,693,840 deaths from CA with concurrent HTN. Overall AAMR rose from 24.56 to 31.68, with an AAPC of 0.82 (p < 0.000001). Men had higher AAMRs than women (overall AAMR: men 32.89; women 25.95). Among races, non-Hispanic (NH) Black/African American adults had the highest mortality (AAMR: 58.25). Older adults (≥ 65 years) bore the highest burden (AAMR: 122.60). Geographic differences were observed, with the West having the highest burden (AAMR: 43.75). Urban areas had higher AAMRs than rural areas (28.88 vs. 25.50). Most deaths (43.78%) occurred in medical facilities. Forecasting to 2035 indicates continued rises, particularly among men, NH Black/African American adults, older adults, West and rural areas.
conclusionCA with concurrent HTN imposes a substantial and rising mortality burden, with pronounced demographic and geographic disparities. Continued surveillance and targeted public-health interventions are warranted.
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