Evidence mapPaperPMID 42221424Full record

ReviewFrontiers in oral health2026

State-transition and simulation-based modeling approaches for simulating the progression of dental caries: a scoping review.

Xenia Teplitzky, Darja Gostilo, Georgios Tsilingaridis, Blend Hamza, Līna Petrova, Shaju Jacob Pulikkotil

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Frontiers in oral health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Xenia TeplitzkyProf. Shaju Jacob Pulikkotil Group. Oral Health Research, Faculty of Dentistry, Rīga Stradiņš University, Riga, Latvia.
Darja GostiloProf. Shaju Jacob Pulikkotil Group. Oral Health Research, Faculty of Dentistry, Rīga Stradiņš University, Riga, Latvia.
Georgios TsilingaridisDivision of Paediatric Dentistry, Department of Dental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Blend HamzaClinic of Orthodontics and Pediatric Dentistry, Center for Dental Medicine, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Līna PetrovaProf. Shaju Jacob Pulikkotil Group. Oral Health Research, Faculty of Dentistry, Rīga Stradiņš University, Riga, Latvia.
Shaju Jacob PulikkotilProf. Shaju Jacob Pulikkotil Group. Oral Health Research, Faculty of Dentistry, Rīga Stradiņš University, Riga, Latvia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Introduction: Dental caries is a common chronic disease in children, influenced by biological, behavioral, and environmental factors, and modeling approaches provide a structured way to simulate disease progression, evaluate preventive or therapeutic interventions, assess economic outcomes, and inform policy. Despite increasing use of decision-analytic and simulation-based frameworks in pediatric dental caries, a comprehensive overview of model types, structures, and applications is lacking. The objective of this scoping review is to identify and describe state-transition and simulation-based modeling approaches used to simulate the progression of dental caries in children, including models applied to the evaluation of preventive or therapeutic interventions and economic outcomes, and to summarize their structural characteristics, applications, and methodological features. Methods: This review includes studies of children and adolescents (birth to 18 years) from any health status or risk profile and in any geographic or clinical setting. Eligible studies described, developed, or applied state-transition or simulation-based models of dental caries progression, while studies limited to predictive, statistical, or cross-sectional approaches, as well as reviews and commentaries, were excluded. MEDLINE (PubMed) and Scopus were searched using a structured strategy, limited to English-language publications. Studies were screened and charted key model features independently by two authors. Results: A total of 43 studies were included, most using state-transition approaches, primarily Markov cohort models and Markov microsimulations. Model structures ranged from simple caries presence to multi-state models incorporating enamel-dentin progression, ICDAS stages, or restorative pathways. Discussion: These findings highlight how structural and methodological choices in caries modeling determine the scope of addressable research questions and underscore the need for standardized health-state classifications. Registration: This review was registered in the Open Science Framework, DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/6BT7K. Systematic Review Registration: https://archive.org/details/osf-registrations-6bt7k-v1.

Indexed as

dental cariesdisease progressionMarkov chainsmodeling approachespediatric dentistry

Identifiers

PMID42221424
PMCPMC13216461

What Socratic holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.