ArticleFrontiers in public health2026
Suppression and resurgence: the evolving epidemiology of seasonal influenza from 2015 to 2024 in a core urban district of Beijing, China.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Temporal association between influenza A and B positivity and fever-clinic visit burden in Shanghai, China, 2022-2025: a retrospective time-series study.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
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6 authors.
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Abstract
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted seasonal influenza dynamics. Understanding post-pandemic rebound patterns is crucial for optimizing future public health strategies. Methods: We conducted a comprehensive epidemiological analysis of multi-source surveillance data collected from Chaoyang District, Beijing, China, a representative core urban area, spanning 2015 to 2024. Data sources included: Influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance records, virological results, and reported influenza cases. A segmented interrupted time-series (ITS) framework, utilizing generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) with negative binomial distribution and AR (1) structure, characterized the disruption and post-pandemic shifts. This robust modeling approach quantified deviations from historical baselines. We also characterized epidemic seasonality, viral strain dominance, and calculated age-stratified rate ratios (RRs). Results: Analysis of 2,468,817 ILI cases revealed a distinct "increase-suppression-resurgence" pattern. The annual proportion of influenza-like illness (ILI%) exhibited a peak of 3.85% in 2019, subsequently declined to 2.29% during 2020-2022, and then rebounded to 4.42% in 2024. Segmented GAMM-AR(1) modeling demonstrated that pandemic-era ILI% remained consistently below counterfactual projections, succeeded by a substantial post-pandemic rebound (RR = 1.72, Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a complex shift in influenza epidemiology, characterized by intensified post-pandemic activity, altered seasonality, and a disproportionate redistribution of reported burden toward working-age adults. This demographic shift likely reflects a combination of post-pandemic changes in healthcare-seeking behavior, surveillance sensitivity, and host-level biological factors, with potential contributions from population-level immune waning. The sustained absence of B/Yamagata lineage detections aligns with global evidence of its probable extinction. These findings underscore the importance of age-stratified influenza monitoring and highlight the need for integrated serological, virological, and behavioral studies to elucidate the determinants of post-pandemic influenza burden.
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