Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42236890›Full record

ArticleNPJ precision oncology2026

Longitudinal evaluation of serial ctDNA kinetics using joint modeling in patients with metastatic breast cancer.

Christopher Pretz, Jesús Fuentes-Antrás, Sasha Main, Aaron Dou, Elizabeth Shah, Emily Van de Laar, Caroline M Weipert, Bryan Lin, Amar Das, Eitan Amir and 7 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in NPJ precision oncology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

17 authors.

Christopher PretzGuardant Health, Inc., Redwood City, CA, USA. cpretz@guardanthealth.com.
Jesús Fuentes-AntrásNEXT Oncology, Hospital Universitario Quirónsalud Madrid, Madrid, Spain.
Sasha MainDepartment of Medical Biophysics, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Aaron DouDivision of Medical Oncology & Hematology, Department of Medicine, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Elizabeth ShahCancer Genomics Program, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Emily Van de LaarCancer Genomics Program, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Caroline M WeipertGuardant Health, Inc., Redwood City, CA, USA.
Bryan LinGuardant Health, Inc., Redwood City, CA, USA.
Amar DasGuardant Health, Inc., Redwood City, CA, USA.
Eitan AmirDivision of Medical Oncology & Hematology, Department of Medicine, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Michelle B NadlerDivision of Medical Oncology & Hematology, Department of Medicine, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Celeste YuCancer Genomics Program, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Hal K BermanDepartment of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.
Lillian L SiuDivision of Medical Oncology & Hematology, Department of Medicine, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Philippe L BedardDivision of Medical Oncology & Hematology, Department of Medicine, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Mitchell J ElliottDivision of Medical Oncology & Hematology, Department of Medicine, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada.
David W CesconDivision of Medical Oncology & Hematology, Department of Medicine, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada.

Funding

Princess Margaret Phase I Consorium (PMP1C)UM1CA186644 · NCI · UNIVERSITY HEALTH NETWORK · PI Philippe Bedard, Kevin D Courtney · 2014 to 2026
$16.6M
NCI NIH HHS UM1 CA186644
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

This study applies joint modeling (JM) of longitudinal and time-to-event data to circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) dynamics measured by liquid biopsy in metastatic breast cancer (mBC), with a focus on dynamic prediction. Unlike traditional prognostic approaches that rely on static biomarkers, JM captures the continuous evolution of a methylation-based tumor fraction (TF) and links these changes to clinical outcomes. Serial liquid biopsies from 49 patients with hormone receptor-positive/HER2-negative mBC treated with endocrine therapy plus a CDK4/6 inhibitor were analyzed using the Guardant Reveal assay. JM combined a flexible longitudinal sub-model to characterize temporal TF trajectories with a Cox proportional hazards model for overall survival (OS) and time to treatment discontinuation (TTD). The most recent TF estimate was strongly associated with both OS and TTD (p < 0.0001), demonstrating an inverse relationship between TF and prognosis. These findings highlight the value of JM for generating patient-specific, dynamically updated predictions that may support real-time, personalized clinical decision-making in mBC management.

Identifiers

PMID42236890
PMCPMC13616900

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.