ArticleLipids in health and disease2026
A prognostic model based on integrated clinical indicators for recurrent acute pancreatitis in patients with hypertriglyceridemia: a retrospective cohort study.
Article in Lipids in health and disease, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundRecurrence after a first episode of hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis (HTG-AP) remains common, whereas admission-time prediction models are still limited. We aimed to identify independent predictors of 3-year recurrence and develop a practical nomogram for early risk assessment.
methodsWe retrospectively analyzed consecutive patients with first-episode HTG-AP admitted between January 2019 and January 2023. Clinical variables, laboratory indices obtained within 24 h of admission, and CT-derived skeletal muscle density (SMD) were collected. All patients had at least 3 years of potential follow-up. Candidate variables were screened using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, followed by multivariable logistic regression to identify independent predictors of recurrence. A nomogram was constructed and evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, calibration, bootstrap validation, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Sensitivity analyses included ln(CRP + 1) adjustment and Fine-Gray regression.
resultsA total of 278 patients were included in the primary logistic regression cohort, of whom 82 (29.5%) developed recurrence within 3 years. Higher triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index (OR 5.027, 95% CI 2.599-9.723, P < 0.001) and smoking history (OR 2.358, 95% CI 1.149-4.838, P = 0.019) were independent risk factors, whereas higher SMD (OR 0.868, 95% CI 0.821-0.917, P < 0.001) and albumin (OR 0.866, 95% CI 0.801-0.936, P < 0.001) were protective factors. The nomogram showed good discrimination, with an AUC of 0.896, and remained stable after bootstrap validation (AUC 0.891). Calibration, DCA, CRP-adjusted analysis, and Fine-Gray regression supported model performance and robustness.
conclusionsA nomogram integrating TyG, SMD, albumin, and smoking history showed good performance for predicting 3-year recurrence after first-episode HTG-AP and may support early risk stratification and individualized follow-up.
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