Evidence mapPaperPMID 42286995Full record

ArticleAnnals of medicine2026

Predicting major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in chronic heart failure: a machine learning study.

Shitao Feng, Baochao Fan, Juncai Bai, Yingchun Gu, Zhengyan Li, Liming Lu, Dongwei Wang

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Article in Annals of medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Shitao FengDepartment of Cardiac Rehabilitation, Zhengzhou Central Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China.ORCID 0009-0009-3342-8947
Baochao FanClinical Research and Big Data Center, South China Research Center for Acupuncture and Moxibustion, Medical College of Acu‑Moxi and Rehabilitation, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou, China.
Juncai BaiDepartment of Cardiac Rehabilitation, Zhengzhou Central Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China.
Yingchun GuDepartment of Cardiac Rehabilitation, Zhengzhou Central Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China.
Zhengyan LiDepartment of Cardiac Rehabilitation, Zhengzhou Central Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China.
Liming LuClinical Research and Big Data Center, South China Research Center for Acupuncture and Moxibustion, Medical College of Acu‑Moxi and Rehabilitation, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou, China.ORCID 0000-0001-7821-4699
Dongwei WangDepartment of Cardiac Rehabilitation, Zhengzhou Central Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundHeart failure (HF) is a clinical syndrome characterized by impaired cardiac diastolic and systolic function due to structural or functional damage to the myocardium. HF represents the end-stage manifestation of many cardiac diseases. Therefore, early identification of high-risk patients is crucial. This study aims to utilize machine learning (ML) methods to develop and validate a model to predict major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) in patients with HF and identify its key predictive features.

methodsThis study is a retrospective cohort study. We enrolled a total of 271 patients, who were divided into training and testing sets. Baseline data, including cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) parameters and laboratory tests, were collected for all participants. Based on the presence or absence of MACCE during follow-up, they were categorized into a No-event group and MACCE group. We developed seven ML models to predict the incidence of MACCE in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) using CPET parameters. The predictive performance of these models was systematically compared, and model interpretability was evaluated using Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Subsequently, retaining only those with HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) for a sensitivity analysis. Additionally, a subgroup analysis was conducted between No-event group and Worsening HF (WHF) group.

resultsWe used Boruta feature selection, four important predictive features were identified. Among the ML models constructed with these features, the Categorical Boosting (CatBoost) model demonstrated the best performance. SHAP analysis was applied to interpret the optimal model, revealing that lower values of heart rate recovery at 1 min (HRR1), as well as a higher carbon dioxide ventilation equivalent slope (VE/VCO

conclusionHRR1 and VE/VCO

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesCerebrovascular DisordersHeart FailureMachine LearningAgedChronic DiseaseExercise TestFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPredictive Learning ModelsPrognosisRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentStroke Volumecardiopulmonary exercise testChronic HFheart rate recoverymachine learning

Identifiers

PMID42286995
PMCPMC13267023

What Socratic holds

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.