A study on risk prediction of decline in self-care ability one month after discharge in postoperative colorectal cancer patients based on routine clinical indicators.

Objective: To investigate the risk factors for the decline in activities of daily living (ADL) one month after discharge in colorectal cancer patients with normal ADL at discharge, and to establish a risk prediction model, so as to provide evidence for early screening of high-risk populations and optimized transitional care in clinical practice. Methods: A single-center retrospective cohort study was conducted. A total of 320 colorectal cancer patients who underwent surgery at the COC Diagnosis and Treatment Center of Shanghai General Hospital from January 2023 to December 2025, with grade A Barthel Index at discharge and completed one-month follow-up, were enrolled. Demographic data, underlying diseases, tumor and treatment information, and laboratory indicators were collected. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were used to screen independent risk factors. A prediction model was constructed and internally validated using the Bootstrap method. Results: Among the 320 patients, 62 (19.4%) developed ADL decline one month after discharge. Multivariate analysis revealed that height and retinol-binding protein were independently negatively correlated with reduced self-care ability (protective associations), while mean red blood cell volume, triglycerides, and coronary heart disease history were independently positively correlated (risk associations). All differences were statistically significant ( Conclusion: The prediction model incorporating height, mean corpuscular volume, retinol-binding protein, triglyceride, and coronary heart disease history can effectively identify high-risk patients early and provide a quantitative reference for discharge preparation and transitional care.