ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2026
Albuminuria Changes as a surrogate endpoint in
Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Importance: Recently, proteinuria has been accepted as a surrogate end point for clinical trials in focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) ang IgA nephropathy. However, proteinuria has not been evaluated in Apolipoprotein L1 (APOL1)-mediated kidney disease (AMKD). Methods: Real world data (RWD) analysis of 128 patients of African ancestry with APOL1 high risk genotypes, without diabetes, enrolled in the Million Veteran Program (MVP; n=109) or the biorepository at Vanderbilt University (BioVU; n=19), who had urine albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) >= 420 mg/g (PCR~0.9 g/g) with a concurrent GFR value. The main predictor was change in the log-UACR at 12 months. The primary outcome was annual GFR slope over 24 months. Secondary outcomes included a kidney composite of a sustained 30% GFR decline, end stage kidney disease (ESKD) or death and ESKD as a single outcome. Linear regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the effect of changes in UACR and the outcomes. Results: In the pooled analysis the mean age was 56.8 (SD 15.5) y, 116 were male (90.6%) and three patients had diagnosis of FSGS at baseline. Mean baseline eGFR was 46.8 (SD 16.1) mL/min/1.73m2, mean baseline UACR was 1240.8 (1107.7) mg/g, mean eGFR slope was 4.67[-6.00, -3.33] mL/min/1.73m2/year and the geometric mean percentage changes in the UACR at 12 months were -57.5% [-65.0%, -48.4%]. For every 1 unit of log (UACR) increment at 12 months, the annual eGFR slope decreased by -1.80 [-2.56, -1.03] mL/min/1.73m Conclusions and relevance: Changes in UACR at 12 months significantly modify the rate of decline of GFR over 24 months and clinically meaningful endpoints, supporting the use of UACR changes as surrogate endpoint in AMKD.
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