Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42329281›Full record

ArticleActa diabetologica2026

Super learner model for predicting carotid plaque regression in type 2 diabetes on PCSK9 inhibitors.

Jingyao Chen, Qinglong Yang, Gaoming Hou, Jianqiao Bi, Qi Xu, Haiting Guo, Jia Sun

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Article in Acta diabetologica, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Jingyao Chen *Department of Endocrinology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Shantou, University Medical College, Shantou, 515000, Guangdong, China.
Qinglong Yang *Department of Urology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Shantou, University Medical College, Shantou, 515000, Guangdong, China.
Gaoming HouDepartment of Urology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Shantou, University Medical College, Shantou, 515000, Guangdong, China.
Jianqiao BiDepartment of Endocrinology, Foshan Sanshui District People's Hospital, Foshan, 528100, Guangdong, China.
Qi XuDepartment of Endocrinology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Shantou, University Medical College, Shantou, 515000, Guangdong, China.
Haiting GuoDepartment of Endocrinology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Shantou, University Medical College, Shantou, 515000, Guangdong, China.
Jia SunDepartment of Endocrinology, ZhuJiang Hospital of Southern Medical University, No.253 Industrial Avenue, Guangzhou, 510282, Guangdong, China. sunjia@smu.edu.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9617-5865

Funding

the 2024 Shantou Municipal Healthcare Science and Technology Plan 240423126497225
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesEvidence regarding the effects of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors on carotid plaque regression in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and subclinical atherosclerosis remains limited; therefore, this study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning-based model for predicting carotid plaque regression in this population.

methodsThis retrospective study included a development cohort of 204 patients with T2DM and subclinical atherosclerosis receiving combined statin and evolocumab therapy, with external validation performed in an independent cohort. The primary outcome was the change in mean carotid plaque thickness. Thirteen predictors were selected using the Boruta algorithm to construct a Super Learner model, which was validated through repeated five-fold cross-validation. Model interpretability was assessed using SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis.

resultsAfter 24 weeks of treatment, carotid plaque regression was observed in 52.9% of patients. The model demonstrated strong discriminatory performance in the internal validation set (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.958; sensitivity = 0.881; specificity = 0.908) and moderate performance in the external validation cohort (AUC = 0.755; sensitivity = 0.875; specificity = 0.560). Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, total cholesterol, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and alanine aminotransferase were identified as the most influential predictors.

conclusionsThis study demonstrates the feasibility of applying machine learning algorithms to predict responses to evolocumab in patients with T2DM and subclinical atherosclerosis. Machine learning may support individualized risk stratification by identifying individuals most likely to benefit from therapy, thereby supporting personalized strategies for secondary cardiovascular disease prevention.

Indexed as

Anticholesteremic AgentsCarotid Artery DiseasesDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2Machine LearningPCSK9 InhibitorsPlaque, AtheroscleroticAgedAntibodies, Monoclonal, HumanizedFemaleHumansHydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase InhibitorsMaleMiddle AgedPrediction AlgorithmsPredictive Learning ModelsProprotein Convertase 9Antibodies, Monoclonal, HumanizedAnticholesteremic AgentsevolocumabHydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase InhibitorsPCSK9 InhibitorsPCSK9 protein, humanProprotein Convertase 9ASCVDMachine learningPCSK9 inhibitorsPredictionType 2 diabetes

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.