Predictors of same-day discharge following bariatric surgery using machine learning.

backgroundSame-day discharge (SDD) following bariatric surgery is becoming increasingly more common to reduce healthcare utilization. However, predictors of successful SDD vary across the literature. This study applied machine learning to identify predictors of SDD and evaluate the relative contributions of patient- and procedure-related factors.

methodsPatients undergoing sleeve gastrectomy and gastric bypass were identified from the Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation and Quality Improvement Program database between 2020 and 2023. Patient, procedure and operative characteristics were analyzed. Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique was applied given that SDD represented the minority of the cases. Machine learning models including Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, Neural Network, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and categorical boosting (CatBoost) were developed to predict SDD. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and compared with multivariable logistic regression. Feature importance was assessed using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP).

resultsA total of 768,744 patients underwent bariatric surgery, of whom 66,809 (8.7%) underwent same-day discharge (SDD). SHAP analysis identified operative duration as the strongest predictor of SDD, while baseline patient comorbidities demonstrated comparatively smaller contributions to model predictions. Among machine learning models, CatBoost demonstrated the highest predictive performance (AUC 0.80), followed by XGBoost (AUC 0.79), whereas multivariable logistic regression had the lowest predictive performance (AUC 0.50).

conclusionWe developed a machine learning model that outperformed logistic regression in predicting same-day discharge following bariatric surgery. Operative duration emerged as the most important predictor of discharge status, suggesting that intraoperative events may play a greater role in determining discharge status than preoperative patient comorbidities.