Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42337652›Full record

ArticleMalaria journal2026

Associations between weather and Plasmodium vivax malaria in an Amazonian elimination setting: a distributed lag analysis from 2017 to 2024.

Gabriella Barratt Heitmann, Xue Wu, Anna T Nguyen, Astrid Altamirano-Quiroz, Sydney R Fine, Bryan Fernandez-Camacho, Antony Barja, Renato Cava, Verónica Soto-Calle, Hugo Rodriguez and 6 more

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Article in Malaria journal, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors.

Gabriella Barratt HeitmannDepartment of Epidemiology and Population Health, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. gabbyrbh@stanford.edu.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4212-0954
Xue WuMalaria Elimination Initiative, Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California San Francisco (UCSF), San Francisco, CA, USA.
Anna T NguyenDepartment of Epidemiology and Population Health, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Astrid Altamirano-QuirozUnit of Leishmaniasis and Malaria, Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Alexander von Humboldt, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru.
Sydney R FineMalaria Elimination Initiative, Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California San Francisco (UCSF), San Francisco, CA, USA.
Bryan Fernandez-CamachoUnit of Leishmaniasis and Malaria, Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Alexander von Humboldt, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru.
Antony BarjaUnit of Leishmaniasis and Malaria, Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Alexander von Humboldt, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru.
Renato CavaUnit of Leishmaniasis and Malaria, Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Alexander von Humboldt, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru.
Verónica Soto-CalleUnit of Leishmaniasis and Malaria, Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Alexander von Humboldt, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru.
Hugo RodriguezUniversidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana, Iquitos, Loreto, Peru.
Gabriel Carrasco-EscobarUnit of Leishmaniasis and Malaria, Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Alexander von Humboldt, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru.
Adam BennettMalaria Elimination Initiative, Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California San Francisco (UCSF), San Francisco, CA, USA.
Alejandro Llanos-CuentasUnit of Leishmaniasis and Malaria, Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Alexander von Humboldt, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru.
Erin A MordecaiDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Michelle S HsiangMalaria Elimination Initiative, Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California San Francisco (UCSF), San Francisco, CA, USA.
Jade Benjamin-ChungDepartment of Epidemiology and Population Health, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.

Funding

Focal mass drug administration (fMDA) to reduce Plasmodium vivax transmission, a pragmatic cluster randomized controlled trial in PeruU01AI157962 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI Michelle Sang Hsiang · 2022 to 2026
$6.3M
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases U01AI157962NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI157962
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThere is limited evidence regarding the association between weather and Plasmodium vivax (Pv), particulary in Latin America where Pv is the predominant malaria species and key challenge for countries to achieve malaria elimination.

methodsWe analyzed the association between weather and Pv malaria incidence from 2017 to 2024 in 136 communities in the Peruvian Amazon. Monthly community-level incidence was calculated using Pv case data from Notiweb, the national epidemiological surveillance system, and population census data. Predictors included weekly minimum and maximum temperature and total weekly precipitation and were calculated using hourly weather from the climate dataset ERA5. Non-linear distributed lag models were fit using a lookback period of 2-16 weeks. Temperature models were adjusted for total precipitation; precipitation models were adjusted for maximum temperature. Sub-group analyses were conducted by community type (adjacent to river versus highway) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) period.

resultsMinimum temperature at the 90th percentile (23.7°C) was associated with 10% (95% CI 5-14%) higher malaria incidence compared to the 5th percentile (20.5°C) at a 7-week lag. Maximum temperature at the 90th percentile (33.7°C) was associated with 10% (95% CI 8-13%) higher malaria incidence compared to the 5th percentile (29.6°C) at a 9-week lag. Total weekly precipitation at the 90th percentile (1000 mm) was associated with 29% (95% CI 24-33%) higher malaria incidence compared to weeks with the 5th percentile (57 mm) at an 11-week lag. Incidence was higher and associations were stronger in communities adjacent to rivers versus highways. Malaria incidence was lower during El Niño periods, and there was evidence of interaction on the multiplicative scale for the association between incidence, all weather predictors, and ENSO period.

conclusionsPv malaria incidence was positively associated with higher temperatures and precipitation in an elimination setting in Peru, particularly in riverine communities during non-El Niño years, with longer lag periods than previously reported for such associations. These findings can inform malaria elimination interventions to combat the long-lasting effects of weather on Pv transmission.

Indexed as

Malaria, VivaxPlasmodium vivaxWeatherHumansIncidencePeru

Identifiers

PMID42337652
PMCPMC13551811

What Socratic holds

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.