Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42359073›Full record

ArticleFrontiers in medicine2026

Machine learning-based prediction of gout flares during hospitalization in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a retrospective cohort study.

Rongrong Chen, Sihan Hu, Shiyun Lu, Mengshi Chen

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Frontiers in medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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0citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Rongrong Chen *Shengli Clinical Medical College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China.
Sihan Hu *School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, China.
Shiyun LuShengli Clinical Medical College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China.
Mengshi ChenShengli Clinical Medical College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background and aims: Acute gout flares pose a significant therapeutic challenge in hospitalized patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) due to the contraindications of standard anti-inflammatory treatments. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model to predict the risk of gout flares in this high-risk inpatient population. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on UGIB patients admitted to the Department of Gastroenterology, Provincial Hospital, Fujian Medical University. Five ML algorithms-Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Naive Bayes (NB), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)-were trained and tested using routinely collected clinical and laboratory data at admission. Model performance was evaluated on an independent test set using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and decision curve analysis (DCA). SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were used to enhance model interpretability. Results: A total of 718 patients were included, with 158 (22.0%) experiencing a gout flare during hospitalization. The RF model exhibited the best predictive performance, achieving an AUC of 0.951 (95% CI: 0.923-0.979), accuracy of 0.901, sensitivity of 0.929, and specificity of 0.873 on the test set. DCA confirmed the clinical utility of all models. SHAP analysis identified six key predictors: serum uric acid (UA), creatinine (Cr), hemoglobin (HB), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), body mass index (BMI), and alcohol consumption history. Conclusion: This study successfully developed a robust ML model, with RF as the optimal algorithm, for accurately predicting inpatient gout flares in UGIB patients. This tool facilitates early identification of high-risk individuals, enabling targeted preventive strategies and enhancing clinical management.

Indexed as

gout flarehospitalizationmachine learningprediction modelrandom forestupper gastrointestinal bleeding

Identifiers

PMID42359073
PMCPMC13290687

What Socratic holds

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.