Evidence mapPaperPMID 42460061Full record

ArticleFrontiers in medicine2026

Development and validation of an interpretable machine learning model for predicting incident gestational hypothyroidism using clinical laboratory markers.

Liran Shen, Ru Liu, Yunbiao Zhang, Qingkai Wang, Zhiqiang Zhang, Mengting Li

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Article in Frontiers in medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Liran Shen *Department of Medical Laboratory Center, Shanxian Central Hospital, Heze, China.
Ru LiuShantou Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shantou, Guangdong, China.
Yunbiao ZhangDepartment of Medical Laboratory Center, Shanxian Central Hospital, Heze, China.
Qingkai Wang *Department of Medical Laboratory Center, Shanxian Central Hospital, Heze, China.
Zhiqiang ZhangChuzhou Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Chuzhou, China.
Mengting LiChuzhou First People's Hospital, Chuzhou, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Objective: Traditional risk factors have limited performance for early identification of gestational hypothyroidism (GHT), and evidence remains limited on prediction using clinical laboratory markers. Methods: This single-center retrospective observational study included 407 pregnant women without GHT at baseline, including 164 with incident GHT and 243 without GHT during follow-up. Candidate predictors were extracted from electronic medical records and laboratory information systems. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression, the Boruta algorithm, and Random Forest variable-importance ranking were used for feature selection. Twelve ML models were developed and compared. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), classification metrics, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), clinical impact curves, and residual analysis. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) was used for interpretation. Results: Nine predictors were retained: zinc (Zn), iron (Fe), copper (Cu), calcium (Ca), vitamin D (vitD), vitamin E (vitE), albumin (ALB), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP). In the validation set, Lasso had the highest AUC [0.918; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.871-0.964]. Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) had a similar AUC (0.916; 95% CI, 0.866-0.965) and achieved the highest accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV), specificity, F1 score, and Youden's J statistic. LightGBM also showed acceptable calibration performance in the internal validation set, clinical net benefit, and residual distribution; therefore, it was selected as the final model. SHAP identified Zn, ALP, ALB, Cu, vitE, ALT, Fe, Ca, and vitD as the leading contributors. Conclusion: A LightGBM model based on clinical laboratory markers showed balanced performance for predicting incident GHT. External prospective validation is required before clinical implementation.

Indexed as

gestational hypothyroidismLightGBMmachine learningrisk predictionSHAP

Identifiers

PMID42460061
PMCPMC13368916

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.