ArticleFrontiers in public health2026
Factors associated with pulmonary tuberculosis in LTBI individuals screened from close contacts: a retrospective case-control study.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) progresses to pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in 5-10% of cases. This study aimed to identify factors associated with PTB among close contacts of PTB patients and to develop an exploratory nomogram for individualized risk estimation. Methods: A retrospective case-control study was conducted in Henan Province, China, in 2024. The PTB group comprised newly diagnosed PTB patients ( Results: Nine factors were independently associated with PTB. Factors associated with increased risk included age ≥60 years (OR = 2.261), male gender (OR = 3.587), diabetes (OR = 3.779), underweight (OR = 5.312), and self-reported high stress (OR = 1.862). Factors associated with decreased risk included married status (OR = 0.187), certain occupations (e.g., farmers, students), overweight (OR = 0.393), obesity (OR = 0.124), receipt of TB health education (OR = 0.446), and presence of a BCG scar (OR = 0.497). The exploratory nomogram showed AUCs of 0.842 (95% CI: 0.809-0.874) in the training set and 0.833 (95% CI: 0.780-0.885) in the validation set. Calibration curves demonstrated good agreement, and DCA suggested potential clinical utility. Conclusion: Age ≥60 years, male gender, diabetes, underweight, and high stress were associated with increased PTB risk, while married status, certain occupations, overweight, obesity, TB health education, and BCG scar were associated with decreased PTB risk among close contacts. The exploratory nomogram showed good discriminative ability in internal validation but requires external validation before clinical application.
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