Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42470686›Full record

ArticleGenetics2026

Should we build single-cell lineage trees from gene expression data?

Nicola Mulberry, Tanja Stadler

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Genetics, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Nicola MulberryDepartment of Biosystems Science & Engineering, ETH Zürich, Basel 4058, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-1465-8001
Tanja StadlerDepartment of Biosystems Science & Engineering, ETH Zürich, Basel 4058, Switzerland.

Funding

European Research Council (ERC) 101001077
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Gene expression data have been proposed as a natural single-cell lineage marker. Here, we critically examine the feasibility of reconstructing lineage trees from single-cell transcriptomic data using both modeling and empirical data. We first introduce a notion of neutrality for transcriptomic data, and then, under a model for neutral gene expression, establish theoretical bounds for accurate lineage tree reconstruction. Our findings indicate that reconstruction guarantees for even small trees or sub-trees require thousands of independent, neutral traits-a condition that is likely rarely met in practice due to the dominance of non-neutral developmental signals. Furthermore, errors introduced by measurement sampling have the potential to destroy any existing lineage signal. We conclude that gene expression data have limited potential as a natural lineage recorder and should not be used for phylogenetic lineage tree inference without further, rigorous validation.

Indexed as

Cell LineageGene Expression ProfilingModels, GeneticPhylogenySingle-Cell AnalysisTranscriptomeAnimalsSingle-Cell Gene Expression Analysisgene expressionlineage treesphylogenysingle-cell RNA sequencing

Identifiers

PMID42470686
PMCPMC13535251

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.