ArticleiScience2026
A minimal model of PTSD susceptibility and timescales.
Article in iScience, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
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Abstract
Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a debilitating condition characterized by intrusive memories, hyperarousal, and avoidance. Treatment outcomes vary, and mechanistic understanding remains incomplete. After trauma, only a minority (10-20%) develop chronic symptoms, while others recover over varying timescales. We present a minimal mathematical model using an autocatalytic symptom driver balanced by removal, capturing PTSD's bistability - a persistent switch to a high-symptom state after trauma. Individual susceptibility is determined by a single "resilience" parameter R, such that PTSD occurs only at low R. The model explains the broad distribution of recovery timescales at intermediate R (dynamical ghost). It also predicts that treatment must surpass a threshold to produce lasting improvement, consistent with clinical observations. We validate the model against longitudinal symptom data across multiple cohorts and trauma types.This simplified framework links physiology to trauma response dynamics and may help guide individualized treatment.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.