ArticleFrontiers in cardiovascular medicine2026
Temporal trends and projected mortality of myocardial infarction and heart failure in the United States, 1999-2035: a CDC WONDER analysis.
Article in Frontiers in cardiovascular medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Myocardial infarction (MI) and heart failure (HF) remain major contributors to cardiovascular mortality in the United States. This study analyzed national MI- and HF-related mortality trends from 1999 to 2024 and projected rates through 2035. Methods: Mortality data for adults aged ≥25 years with MI- and HF-related deaths (ICD-10 codes I21-I22 and I50) were obtained from CDC WONDER. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs), standardized to the 2000 U.S. population, were calculated. Temporal trends were assessed using Joinpoint regression to estimate annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC). Forecasts through 2035 were generated using Auto-ARIMA and Prophet models. Results: From 1999 to 2024, 552,835 myocardial infarction (MI)- and heart failure (HF)-related deaths were recorded in the United States. The mean age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) across the study period was 9.73 per 100,000 population. The national AAMR declined from 15.32 in 1999 to 7.55 in 2024, with a significant decrease from 1999 to 2012 (APC = -5.39%, Conclusions: Although MI- and HF-related mortality declined substantially from 1999 to 2024, progress slowed after 2012, with persistent demographic and geographic disparities across age, race, region, and rurality. Younger adults, rural populations, and non-Hispanic Black individuals continue to experience disproportionately higher mortality burdens, underscoring the need for equitable prevention strategies and improved cardiovascular care access.
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