ArticleInternational journal of public health2026
Multimodal risk profiles reveal shared and disease-specific risks of major non-communicable diseases: a prospective cohort study of 42,666 individuals.
Article in International journal of public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Objectives: Evaluate whether circulating blood biomarker profiles identify shared and disease-specific risks of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Methods: We considered 42,666 participants from Taizhou, China. After exclusions, discovery (n = 14,478; recruited 2011.9-2014.1) and temporal validation (n = 25,018; recruited 2018.7-2021.11) cohorts were defined. We integrated 54 blood biomarkers and 26 questionnaire/physical indicators. Predictors were selected after Cox pre-screening based on concordant inclusion across stepwise regression, regularized regression, and Boruta random forest. Results: The final score included 15 biomarkers plus age, smoking, hypertension, and vegetable intake. In the temporal validation cohort, high-risk individuals (25.0% of participants) accounted for 53.9% of incident major NCD cases, with a 6.29-fold (4.83-8.19) higher risk than the low-risk group. Similar gradients were observed for all-cause mortality. Compared with disease-specific scores, the combined score effectively stratified both composite and individual outcomes and revealed shared risks: 56.1% of disease-specific high-risk individuals were also high risk for other NCDs. Conclusion: A score integrating blood biomarkers with epidemiological and physical measures achieved clear risk stratification in the temporal validation cohort and may support priority population identification for major NCDs.
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