Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42499635›Full record

ArticleHealth care science2026

Long-Term Trends and Projections of the Global Epilepsy Burden: Insights From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Du Cai, Xianze Li, Qiwen Yuan, Zhongming Lian, Chenyu Zhao, Baotian Zhao, Xiu Wang, Chao Zhang, Lin Sang, Wenhan Hu and 5 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Health care science, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Du CaiDepartment of Neurosurgery, Beijing Tiantan Hospital Capital Medical University Beijing China.
Xianze LiDepartment of Neurosurgery, Beijing Tiantan Hospital Capital Medical University Beijing China.
Qiwen YuanDepartment of Neurosurgery, Beijing Tiantan Hospital Capital Medical University Beijing China.
Zhongming LianDepartment of Anesthesiology The Third Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University Zhengzhou China.
Chenyu ZhaoSchool of Pharmacy Queen's University Belfast Belfast United Kingdom.
Baotian ZhaoDepartment of Neurosurgery, Beijing Tiantan Hospital Capital Medical University Beijing China.
Xiu WangDepartment of Neurosurgery, Beijing Tiantan Hospital Capital Medical University Beijing China.
Chao ZhangDepartment of Neurosurgery, Beijing Tiantan Hospital Capital Medical University Beijing China.
Lin SangDepartment of Neurosurgery Beijing Fengtai Hospital Beijing China.
Wenhan HuDepartment of Neurosurgery, Beijing Neurosurgical Institute Capital Medical University Beijing China.
Xiaoqiu ShaoDepartment of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital Capital Medical University Beijing China.
Jianguo ZhangDepartment of Neurosurgery, Beijing Tiantan Hospital Capital Medical University Beijing China.
Shichuo LiChina Association Against Epilepsy Beijing China.
Jiajie MoDepartment of Neurosurgery, Beijing Tiantan Hospital Capital Medical University Beijing China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9721-1378
Kai ZhangDepartment of Neurosurgery, Beijing Tiantan Hospital Capital Medical University Beijing China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7885-3658

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Epilepsy is a common neurological disorder imposing significant global health burdens. A comprehensive understanding of its temporal and spatial trends is critical for informing policies and guiding interventions. Methods: This study assessed the burden of epilepsy from 1990 to 2021 worldwide, in Asia, and in China, and projected trends to 2050. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study to evaluate the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) related to epilepsy. Joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort analysis, and autoregressive integrated moving average forecasting were used to examine temporal trends and project future patterns. We also assessed the influence of socioeconomic development, health service coverage, and risk factors on the epilepsy burden, focusing on regional disparities. Results: From 1990 to 2021, the incidence and prevalence of epilepsy showed a significant upward trend, while mortality and DALY rates showed a significant downward trend. China exhibited sharper reductions in mortality (average annual percent change = -2.64) and DALY rates (average annual percent change = -1.79). Inequalities persist, with low socio-demographic index countries showing a disproportionately higher epilepsy burden. In China, improved universal health coverage and socioeconomic development are correlated with a decreasing burden. Alcohol use remains a key modifiable risk factor, particularly among men. Projections suggest a continued shift in the epilepsy burden toward older adults, with those aged ≥ 70 years contributing the largest share of future cases. Conclusions: Epilepsy remains a major global health concern with a substantial and uneven disease burden. Comprehensive burden analyses are essential for guiding public health policy, optimizing resource allocation, and developing targeted prevention and intervention strategies.

Indexed as

disease burdenepilepsyGlobal Burden of Disease 2021projections

Identifiers

PMID42499635
PMCPMC13398957

What Socratic holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.