Spatial trade-offs between environmental sustainability and crop production in China under SDG-aligned scenarios.

Reconciling lower environmental impacts from agriculture with food security is a core national objective in China. We develop spatially explicit projections for nine major crops to 2030 and 2060 under Business-as-Usual (BAU), BAU with carbon-efficiency constraints (BAU-CE), and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)-aligned pathway (SDG-60). Despite improved input-use efficiency, national output declines modestly by 2030 relative to 2020 (-11.4% BAU and -11.5% BAU-CE). By 2060, efficiencies approach ∼90%, with substantial reductions in aggregate inputs (fertilizer -30%, pesticides -50%, and irrigation water -34.4%). Under SDG-60, cropping greenhouse-gas emissions are ∼72% lower than under BAU-CE, while aggregate production across the nine crops declines by ∼50.5%. Spatial heterogeneity reveals trade-off zones where large mitigation gains and reduced chemical and water use coincide with output and income losses, particularly in rice-intensive provinces. Provinces with below-median labor productivity and income but above-median mitigation burdens are identified as structurally disadvantaged, highlighting where differentiated targets, incentives, and transition support are most needed to balance mitigation, food security, and rural livelihoods.