A structural causal model for robot-assisted upper-limb neurorehabilitation.

Upper-limb robot-assisted neurorehabilitation in stroke yields modest improvements in impairments that do not generalize to functional outcomes, with substantial variability across patients. In response, there is increasing interest in precision neurorehabilitation through mechanistically driven, tailored robot-assisted therapy for individual patients. Such approaches require models that support interventional reasoning about therapy parameters (e.g., "what if we increase robotic assistance or dose for this patient?"), rather than providing purely associational findings such as biomarkers correlated with recovery. Leveraging recent developments in causal inference, this paper presents a structural causal model of robot-assisted therapy for the upper limb in the form of a directed acyclic graph. The graph encodes key constructs identified in the robot-assisted neurorehabilitation literature as nodes and represents their known or hypothesized causal influences as directed edges, reflecting current domain knowledge. We describe the components of the causal graph in detail and show how it can account for several observed phenomena in robot-assisted therapy, while also yielding testable predictions in the form of interventional effects. We then highlight important limitations of the proposed causal model, before presenting a conceptual example of how a fully specified causal graph could help answer questions about attainable outcomes and optimal therapy parameters for individual patients. The proposed concrete causal graph must be empirically investigated to test its validity and refine its causal structure through observational and experimental studies. We anticipate that this proposed causal graph will serve a catalytic role in advancing our mechanistic understanding of robot-assisted therapy, which may hold the key toward improving individual patient outcomes with robot-assisted therapy.